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31 August 2025

The New Hamas Insurgency

Leila Seurat

On August 18, Hamas accepted a new cease-fire proposal for the war in Gaza. The deal, which had just been presented by Egypt and Qatar and closely echoed earlier proposals shaped by the United States that Israel had backed without approving, called for the release of ten of the remaining 20 living Israeli captives in exchange for a 60-day truce. Unlike previous such proposals, Hamas did not request any changes to the document and accepted it within hours. So far, Israel has not accepted the proposal.

Many observers have interpreted Hamas’s immediate endorsement as a sign of weakness, if not desperation. In this reading, after nearly two years of unremitting Israeli bombardment and siege of Gaza, the assassination of Hamas’s top leaders, and devastating attacks on the group’s allies around the region, including Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas has few options left.

But Hamas’s rapid acceptance of the deal may be as much a strategic ploy as a symptom of duress. After nearly two years of war, Hamas’s political organization has suffered severe blows and its remit over war-torn Gaza is tenuous. Yet despite the growing devastation of Gaza, Hamas’s fighters have shown continued strength. Since the spring of 2025, they have stepped up offensive attacks on Israeli forces across the strip, including a large-scale assault on an Israeli base on August 20, and other operations in June and July in which multiple Israeli soldiers were killed. At the same time, they have increased coordination with other armed groups in Gaza and replenished their ranks, even amid the widespread starvation of the population. Behind Hamas’s resilience is an evolution in its approach to the war that has further raised the stakes and that could make Israel’s controversial new campaign to seize Gaza City a military, as well as humanitarian, disaster.

SHOCK FROM BELOW

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