Brent M. Eastwood
Key Points and Summary – A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent, despite constant military rehearsals and bellicose rhetoric. Beijing’s strategy is one of patient deterrence, not immediate conquest.
-The memory of the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when a U.S. carrier strike group forced China to back down, still looms large.
-Since then, China has built a formidable military to prevent a repeat of that humiliation.
-However, an actual invasion would likely only be triggered by a dramatic shift in Taipei, such as a formal declaration of independence by a new, more defiant political party—a line the current leadership has not crossed.
No, China Will Not Attack Taiwan in the Near Future
The Taiwan question is the biggest issue facing the Chinese military. It drives the Middle Kingdom’s grand strategy and has obsessed leaders for decades. Xi Jinping is no exception. Every military move he makes has implications for future China-Taiwan relations.
An attack to reunify the island with the mainland is always imminent. Xi will be judged by Chinese historians on how well he handles the Taiwan issue. He cannot “lose” the island.
Taiwan has always been considered a wayward renegade province that annoys the Chinese like a bee in a bonnet. Taiwan is seen as rightfully owned by Beijing. Full independence would be a nightmare for the People’s Republic.
I have written that I don’t see China attacking Taiwan anytime soon, though. The Chinese do not do anything quickly without ample strategic foresight. They plod along, simmering with irritation, and always talk a big game. They do rehearse amphibious landings to overthrow the government of Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean an attack will come in the next year or two.
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