Robert Harward & Yoni Tobin
Iran, known as the head of the octopus for its terrorism proliferation, may be getting a lifeline from the country known as the dragon—China. Beijing has reportedly offered Iran air defense assets and fighter jets—if true, a clear effort to deter future U.S. or Israeli action against Iran. Chinese denials carry little weight. The United States must prevent China from bailing Iran out, including by enforcing sanctions on Iran-China oil trade and threatening consequences if Beijing restores Iran’s air defences. The U.S. military’s successful operation against three Iranian nuclear sites displayed American willingness to boldly strike adversaries’ strategic assets, bolstering deterrence against the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis. Yet, truly advancing U.S.
strategic aims requires weakening the growing ties between Washington’s enemies.By resuscitating Iran’s debilitated air defenses, China could insulate Iran from future strikes and change the U.S. and Israeli cost calculus. Reportedly, China is considering supplying Iran its J-10C fighters, China’s version of the F-16, and potentially its HQ-9 air defenses — a similar system to the Russian S-300s that formed Iran’s air defense backbone before Israel eliminated them. The HQ-9 bears similarities to the U.S. Patriot system and helped Pakistan significantly in its May skirmish with India.
Strategic cooperation of this sort is not hypothetical. Prior to the war, China helped Iran gear up to attack Israel, supplying Iran in February with ammonium perchlorate for missile propellant. Despite the combustible mix exploding inside Iran in April, killing dozens, Iran re-ordered ammonium perchlorate from China in June—enough to make propellant for 800 ballistic missiles.Showcasing the close bilateral relationship, two days after the war’s end, Iran’s defense minister flew to China for a meeting of the Russian- and Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) bloc—of which Iran is a member. Iran’s foreign minister then traveled to China for an SCO meeting on July 15.
During the war, China continued filling the regime’s coffers, as Iran exported a record 1.8 million barrels of oil to China daily at the war’s peak. Tehran needs this trade far more than Beijing does—China imports just 14 percent of its oil from Iran, while Iran exports 90 percent of its oil to China—but by keeping Iran cash-liquid, China puts a thorn in the side of America and its partners. This illicit commerce reaps Iran some $70 billion annually, helping it skirt Western sanctions and fund its destabilizing aggression.
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