George Friedman and Kamran Bokhari
“The Next 100 Years,” which was published some 15 years ago, forecast the emergence of three significant powers over the next few decades: Japan, Poland and Turkey. Japan’s stable and growing economy and its focus on military development evince a steady, if quiet, growth in its power. Poland is now the fifth-largest economy in Europe and a Continental leader in military development. Yet both countries are constrained by major powers. Japan must contend with China, and Poland must contend with Russia, located as it is on the rear of Ukraine.
Now is Turkey’s time to shine. It has a large military and economy that, while only modestly growing, flashes the kind of potential few others in the region can. But more important, it has a massive geopolitical opportunity. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, the United States seeking to reduce its global footprint, Iran suffering losses throughout the region that have been complicated by its internal leadership transition, and Israel reeling from crises at home and abroad, Turkey can exploit these openings in any direction in which it has fundamental interests.
In some cases, it already has. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkey played a critical role in helping Azerbaijan defeat Armenia in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, which resulted in a historic shift in the balance of power on Turkey’s eastern flank. Baku’s seizure of the territory has allowed Armenia and Azerbaijan to distance themselves from Russia and align themselves with Turkey. As important, an Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal, which is expected to be signed soon, will facilitate Ankara’s development of the Zangezur corridor, an economic artery traversing the South Caucasus.
Meanwhile, Turkey has been the biggest winner in the Israel-Iran conflict. The decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and offensive warning capabilities led to the collapse of the Assad regime. Israel’s subsequent attacks against Iran have seriously weakened the Islamic Republic. Turkey quickly capitalized on the opportunity to bring Syria into its sphere of influence, supporting one of its proxy groups to take control of the capital in Damascus. Ankara has also improved relations with major Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
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