Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Could Trigger a Central Asian Water Crisis

Galiya Ibragimova

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Water shortages have long been a serious problem in Central Asia. They will become even worse when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting significant volumes of water from the Amu Darya River for irrigation purposes. The lack of a water use agreement with the countries of Central Asia—particularly Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan—could end up increasing regional tensions.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan began work on the Qosh Tepa Canal, one of its most ambitious infrastructure projects, immediately upon regaining power in 2021. Construction has progressed remarkably quickly since then, with almost half the planned 285 kilometers complete. The canal is due to be fully operational by 2028, when it will take as much as 10 cubic kilometers of water every year from the Amu Darya—about a third of its flow.

The Taliban hope the canal will help rejuvenate the country’s drought-stricken agriculture sector, which employs about 90 percent of Afghans. At present, Afghanistan is obliged to import food (including wheat, vegetables, fruits, and legumes) that it could grow itself. Taliban officials are also counting on the canal helping to reduce the economy’s dependence on the illegal drug trade, which in 2021 accounted for about 15 percent of the country’s GDP. One reason that poppy cultivation is so profitable for farmers is that poppies require far less water than other crops. The extent of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has fallen since the Taliban returned to power, but developing the country’s irrigation system should help convince farmers to switch to other crops.

Afghanistan suffers from particularly severe water shortages. In some areas there is not only not enough water for irrigation, but even for drinking. In 2023, an argument over the flow of the southern Helmand River led to an armed confrontation between locals and Iranian border guards. Shortages are even more severe in Afghanistan’s northern provinces—particularly Balkh, Faryab, and Jowzjan—where about a third of the country’s 40 million inhabitants live. People there have to buy water for household needs.