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12 September 2025

Balancing China In The West Philippine Sea: Does The Philippines Need A Gray Zone Deterrence Strategy? – Analysis

Christian Vicedo

As China Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia vessels swarm Second Thomas Shoal, in which the grounded Philippine warship Sierra Madre serves as a military outpost, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. expressed the need for deterring China and giving a strong message that its unilateral actions in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) “will not be tolerated by the international community.”

In recent months, the Philippines has sought to enhance its defense posture by deepening cooperation with its treaty ally and strategic partners. These actions range from facilitating the deployment of U.S. missile systems within Philippine territory, participating in defense ministerial meetings with U.S., Japan, and Australia, signing a reciprocal access agreement with Japan, and conducting joint military exercises.

If defending Philippine territorial integrity and sovereignty from China is one of the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration’s political objectives, then it is clear that deterring China’s actions through external balancing is among the strategic concepts of this administration.

Given China’s unyielding position, it is worth examining how Beijing sustains its gray zone activities amidst the efforts of the Philippines to strengthen extended deterrence through deeper defense cooperation with the U.S., Japan, and Australia to assert its sovereignty in the WPS and the rules-based international order.

Extended Deterrence in the WPS

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