Eric Rudenshiold
Moscow’s hybrid war strategy in the Caucasus is beginning to crumble, as countries in the region have begun to find their voice.
Russia is unhappy with its neighbors and expressing displeasure with increasing energy costs. Seeking to secure a measure of independence from their big neighbor to the north, the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus are forming new relationships and alliances that Moscow has no control over. Baku and Astana, with the region’s largest economies, are the latest victims to feel the brunt of Moscow’s retaliatory hybrid pressure.
Russia’s most recent moves draw from a tried-and-true playbook of coercion that seeks to disrupt Azerbaijan’s and Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sectors — the lifeblood of their economies. Using guided drones, Russia twice struck and destroyed the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan’s (SOCAR) oil terminal in Odessa, contaminated pipeline crude shipments, and coerced Kazakhstan back to oil transfer dependence on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).
What is striking is not Moscow’s aggression but the mounting resilience and pushback by the South Caucasus and Central Asian countries. Since independence in 1991, Russia has leveraged geography, infrastructure, and legacies to keep its neighbors tethered to Russia’s transit architecture, markets, and political direction. Now, however, Baku, Astana, Tashkent, and the other capitals are charting new courses that seek to counter Moscow’s leverage. While Russia may have innovated its hybrid tactics, its former dependencies no longer see themselves as hostages.
Russia Ups the Pressure
Energy remains perhaps Russia’s most potent lever of influence in the post-Soviet space. By targeting Azerbaijan’s oil depots and the facilities that support Ukraine and supply Europe, Moscow sent a clear threat to Baku’s growing economy and expanding energy and transit footprint. The alleged contamination of Azerbaijani oil shipments mirrors earlier Russian efforts to sabotage the integrity of rival energy corridors. Forcing Kazakhstan to reroute its crude back into the CPC system underlines how Moscow uses legacy infrastructure chokepoints to constrain its neighbors’ strategic options.
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