Dennis S. Nelson
Russia’s current “Special Military Operation” against Ukraine is just part of an 800 year long struggle with the West. During those hundreds of years, Russia has experienced cycles of expansion and contraction, the most recent contraction being the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union in 1991. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its assault on the Donbass in 2014, and its all-out attack on Ukraine in 2022, started the latest new cycle of Russian expansion to the West.
Geographic/Geopolitical Considerations
Russia has no significant geographic features to protect it from invasion from Europe, and since its very inception has been vulnerable to conquest. The traditional invasion route to Russia is from the North European plane, whose narrowest part is the 300 miles between the Baltic Sea and Carpathian Mountains, in Poland. This invasion route was taken by the Teutonic Knights (1242), the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (1610), Sweden (1700), France (1812), Germany (1914), Poland (1920), and Germany (1941). According to the Russians, NATO was/is a threat to the Soviet Union in the Cold War, and to Russia today, by that same route.
It has been a top priority for historic Russia to control these narrow Polish flatlands, which Imperial Russia (1795-1914) and the Soviet Union (1945-1991) were able to accomplish. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the loss of its satellite Poland, Russia seeks a back-up buffer zone in Belarus and Ukraine.[1]
Russia’s Cycles of Expansion and Contraction
For hundreds of years, Russia’s geopolitical objective has been to expand from its core borders toward Central Europe. There have been five historic waves of Russian expansion, and Russia has begun its sixth wave. Several of these waves began from a line to where Russia had previously contracted, as a result being pushed back by Western forces. This historic starting line corresponds roughly with the 1991 border of the Russian Federation.
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