Col. (ret.) Dr. Cătălin Balog
This is the central dilemma of the second part of the analysis of the current multipolar confrontation. Beyond the visible demonstrations – American submarines and Russian bombers – and bellicose declarations, an unseen battle is being waged for the control of perceptions, where power is also defined by narratives and emotions, not just by weapons. The paper introduces concepts such as emotional deterrence, controlled spectacle and normative truth to explain the distinct registers of the great actors: American poker, Russian chess, Chinese go and European normativity. The analysis ends with three scenarios – negotiation, accident or unilateral imposition – and with the conclusion that the wars of the future will be won through the ability to impose one’s own version of reality.
I. Prologue – The Visible Theatre and the Unseen Backstage
In the current era, strategic confrontations are not reduced to troop movements, military exercises or official statements. More and more often, reality is played out on two simultaneous planes: the visible one, intended for public opinion, and the invisible one, of perceptions, illusions and manipulations. The central dilemma is whether we are facing solid facts or a directed show, designed to convey messages and condition behaviours. “Spectacle or reality?” thus becomes the key question through which contemporary multipolarity is deciphered.
Since ancient times, thinkers such as Sun Tzu observed that “the art of war is the art of deception”, [2]emphasizing the primacy of illusion over direct confrontation. In modernity, Niccolò Machiavelli recommended that leaders manipulate perceptions in order to consolidate their authority[3], and Otto von Bismarck demonstrated that the balance of great powers depended not only on the ratio of the armed forces, but also on the perception of political will[4]. In the nuclear age, the Nixon administration refined these intuitions through the “Madman Theory”, the stake being the projection of a calculated unpredictability to coerce the adversary[5].
This ambivalence – between reality and spectacle – can be understood through three distinct paradigms: “Madman Theory” in the case of the United States, “Deep Control” in the case of Russia, and “Silence Power” in the case of China. Each represents a different way of orchestrating perceptions, manipulating emotions, and imposing one’s own strategic pace.
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