Syria’s Minority Killings Aren’t Accidents – They’re Strategy

Ore Koren 

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In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s fall in Syria, the U.S. and several European Union countries legitimized Ahmed al-Sharaa. Better known as al-Julani, he is a Sunni Muslim and former Al-Qaeda and ISIS commander leading Syria’s postwar government. At first, Al-Julani appeared able to achieve stability. Foreign governments lifted sanctions, resumed aid, and normalized diplomatic ties. In recent months, al-Julani’s forces have carried out brutal campaigns against Syria’s Alawite and Druze communities. Al-Julani did not target these minorities at random. The real story behind the recent violence against minorities in Syria paints a much more gruesome picture of Al-Julani’s leadership.

Alawites, a minority group that made up roughly 15% of Syria’s population under Assad, shared his ethnic background. As a result, the Alawites had privileged status within Assad’s regime. Like the Alawites, the Druze, an even smaller group concentrated in the south, resisted al-Julani’s military from entering their areas. Community leaders saw securing autonomy as protection from retribution, or more broadly, to avoid living under a rebranded Islamic State.

Plausible-Deniability Strategy

And yet, the violence against minorities in Syria is not a story of sectarian chaos. Rather, it exemplifies plausible-deniability repression – a strategy of state violence that deliberately relies on non-state actors to obscure responsibility. Governments use militias and auxiliaries—armed groups with minimal or officially unacknowledged ties to the state—to deny responsibility for violence, since observers cannot directly trace these groups back to the regime. Although presumed to be unaffiliated with the state, these organizations often maintain informal or semi-official ties and sometimes operate under little more than shifting bureaucratic labels.

Governments use militias and auxiliaries—armed groups with minimal or officially unacknowledged ties to the state—to deny responsibility for violence, since observers cannot directly trace these groups back to the regime.