Jeremiah "Lumpy" Lumbaca
Innovations in five areas are transforming the character and nature of irregular warfare (IW). Described herein as “vehicles,” these enablers are influencing outcomes from Ukraine to Taiwan and the Middle East. The vehicles are space, drones, artificial intelligence (AI), unconventional maritime operations, and global supply chains.
IW is about people, cognition, incentives, coercion, assurance, and legitimacy. The five vehicles don’t change any of that. Instead, these vehicles should be thought of as the most important tools used to promote or “deliver” Irregular Warfare. They are deeply interconnected, with their interdependencies amplifying their collective impact, necessitating new approaches for strategists and policymakers. Each section of this article outlines how one vehicle relies on one or more of the others.
The Space Vehicle
Space has become a critical vehicle for Irregular Warfare primarily because of the democratization of technologies associated with it. Commercial satellite imagery, with resolutions as fine as 30 centimeters from providers like Planet Labs, enables non-state actors and smaller powers to access advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Low-earth-orbit satellite constellations, such as SpaceX’s Starlink with over 6,000 satellites, facilitate coordination in contested environments like eastern Ukraine, where reliable connectivity enables real-time tactical adjustments.
Space-based navigation systems, including GPS and Galileo, supercharge the precision of drone and maritime operations, enabling strikes within meters of intended targets, like was recently seen in Operation Spider’s Web. However, while space assets enable hybrid conflict, they are also vulnerable to it themselves. Portable jammers costing less than $1,000 can disrupt satellite communications, while ground-based lasers can temporarily blind optical sensors, as seen in reported incidents targeting U.S. satellites. Cyberattacks on ground stations, such as the 2022 attack on Viasat’s KA-SAT network, can disable entire satellite networks. These actions, often difficult to attribute, degrade capabilities without triggering overt conflict. Non-state actors leverage dual-use technologies, such as 3U CubeSats weighing under 4 kilograms, for ISR or electronic warfare, integrating space-based systems with terrestrial operations to create asymmetric advantages. The interdependence of drones, AI, and unconventional maritime operations underscores the strategic importance of space in irregular competition.
The Drones Vehicle
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