Marcus Loh
When Beijing staged its largest military parade in a decade on Wednesday to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, the pageantry was carefully choreographed. DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles and J-20 stealth fighters in a flex of military confidence abroad and reassurance at home.
Once reliant on Soviet imports and fragmented production, China has consolidated its capabilities into vertically integrated conglomerates: AVIC in aviation, CASIC in missiles and space, CSSC in shipbuilding and CETC in electronics.
These state-owned enterprises now sustain a PLA Rocket Force with “survivable” ICBMs, a PLA Air Force with fifth-generation fighters and a PLA Navy boasting over 370 hulls, the largest by count worldwide.
This industrial base has powered cycles of modernization that closed historic gaps in land-based deterrence, as the parade clearly showcased. The question now is whether such an industrial scale can deliver a durable geopolitical advantage.
From vulnerability to primacy
For much of its history, China’s greatest threats came over land, from nomadic incursions to imperial rivals. Today, it has turned centuries of land-based insecurity into continental primacy.
Mongolia now sends a majority of its coal and mineral exports to China. The 2023 opening of the Tavan Tolgoi–Gashuunsukhait rail line – built to Chinese gauge standards – further deepened dependence by giving Beijing control over volumes and pricing.
Across Central Asia, Chinese-built infrastructure underpins transport and energy corridors. CNPC pipelines push hydrocarbons eastward, Digital Silk Road technologies embed surveillance into governance and Chinese finance sustains large shares of Kyrgyz and Tajik debt.
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