Amid China’s Export Ban, Don’t Forget the Human Costs of Myanmar’s Rare Earths

Debby S.W. Chan

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China controls approximately 90 percent of the world’s rare earths processing. Its dominating position in the rare earth supply enables Beijing to weaponize its structural advantage in the high-tech industry and green energy transition.

Last week, China’s Ministry of Commerce tightened restrictions on rare earth exports, abruptly ending the tariff truce reached in May 2025. In response, the Trump administration threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on Chinese exports to the United States.

While the China-U.S. trade conflict continues to evolve, discussions about diversification of rare earth sourcing have been growing. Some actors have considered engaging with Myanmar, a major external supplier of rare earths to China. However, strategies to counter China’s rare earths monopoly must confront the entrenched and multilayered injustices underpinning the global supply chain. A case study of Myanmar’s rare earths reveals inequalities between the Global North and the Global South, between China and Myanmar, and between local powerholders and affected communities.

Since the 2021 military coup, which ended a decade of political liberalization, rare earth exports from Myanmar to China have sharply increased. Chinese customs data report that imports rose in value from $388 million in 2020 to $1.4 billion in 2023.

Most of Myanmar’s rare earth elements, especially heavy rare earths such as dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb), are extracted from mines in Kachin State and Shan State, adjacent to China. In Kachin State alone, the number of mining sites increased from about 130 in 2020 to at least 370 in 2025, as revealed by satellite analysis from the Institute for Strategy and Policy.

These developments trace back to the post-coup collapse of public administration and intensifying armed conflict. The resulting flow of rare earths into China has reinforced Beijing’s dominance in the sector.

With that in mind, one proposed strategy for other countries to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth imports involves engaging with Myanmar directly. Although many international stakeholders remain hesitant to cooperate with the military regime, some contemplate collaboration between the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the United States, India, Australia, and Japan through the Quad grouping.