Critical minerals in crisis: Stress testing US supply chains against shocks

Reed Blakemore, Alexis Harmon, and Peter Engelke

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Critical minerals are foundational to the modern economy and state power via their centrality to advanced technologies across energy, military, and commercial applications. From permanent magnets in fighter jets and submarines to the batteries in electric vehicles and grid-scale storage, these inputs underpin the defense, energy, and technology bases of the United States and its partners. Yet critical mineral supply chains have become increasingly brittle: concentrated in a handful of countries, overwhelmingly refined in China, and increasingly exposed to extreme weather disruption.

China has demonstrated its willingness to weaponize its dominance over mineral markets, tightening export restrictions on graphite, antimony, and certain rare earths in retaliation for US trade and technology controls. Meanwhile, extreme droughts and heat waves are already disrupting mining and processing in regions the United States hopes to rely on for diversification. Policymakers are thus confronted with a stark question: How prepared is the United States to withstand a sudden, sustained disruption in access to critical minerals?

Policymakers in Washington are increasingly focused on mapping US critical mineral needs and boosting domestic production capacity to manage dependency risks. Given the long lead times for the development of critical mineral mining, processing, and manufacturing assets, even aggressive expansion of new, derisked supply chain activity may not yet bear fruit in time to protect the United States from a severe supply chain disruption.

To explore this challenge, the Atlantic Council, in partnership with TMP Public, convened a scenario workshop in July 2025, bringing together experts from government, industry, and academia.1 Through two stress tests—one geopolitical, one extreme weather-driven—participants mapped the likely impacts of severe mineral disruptions, the limits of the current US response tool kit, and the role that allies, markets, and industry could play in bridging vulnerabilities.