Greg Ip
On Saturday, Japan got a new prime minister. On Tuesday, gold topped $4,000 for the first time.
It wasn’t a coincidence.
Sanae Takaichi, the surprise nominee to lead Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is a fiscal and monetary dove. She wants more economic stimulus, and the Bank of Japan to help by not raising rates too much. News of her selection sent the yen down and Japanese stocks and bond yields up.
The news also added to gold’s epic run this year, with a further 2.6% jump Monday and Tuesday. It turns out the U.S. isn’t the only country where massive debts and populist politics threaten the value of “fiat” currencies like the dollar—i.e., those backed by nothing tangible—and the central banks that issue them.
Last month, Nigel Farage, leader of the populist Reform UK party, now ahead in polls in Britain, criticized the Bank of England for selling bonds, because the resulting losses and upward pressure on interest rates were costing taxpayers.
The European Central Bank, designed with near total independence from politicians, looks secure for now. But pressure on it could build, too. France just lost its fourth prime minister in a little over a year amid an impasse over taming its debt. In both France and Germany, populists who in the past advocated abandoning the euro are leading the polls.
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