Shushant VC Parashar
Beijing is signaling geoeconomic control over a chokepoint industry by deciding to resume the supply of rare-earth magnets to India on the condition of a written “no-diversion” pledge. This is more than just a contractual detail. The action encapsulates two factors influencing New Delhi’s decisions: the diffusion of great-power competition into contracts, standards, and midstream processing instead of territorial disputes, and asymmetric interdependence in critical materials.
At the same time, Kabul’s request for Indian investment in Afghanistan’s mineral industry provides a long-term hedge that is both operationally and politically ambiguous. When combined, these changes compel India to balance its long-term goal of strategic autonomy with its immediate industrial needs.
Minerals as New Geopolitics: Structure and Conditionality
Critical minerals have moved from the periphery of trade policy to the center of strategic competition. Washington’s “de-risking” and friend-shoring, Beijing’s countermeasures regarding gallium, graphite, and rare earths, and the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act together point to a partial bifurcation of value chains.
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