Derek Grossman
Japan appears poised to elect its first female prime minister in the coming days – truly a historic achievement. However, the brand of foreign policy espoused by Sanae Takaichi may create heartburn across much, if not most, of Northeast Asia. Takaichi – a staunch conservative who fashions herself as Japan’s Margaret Thatcher – now leads the Liberal Democratic Party. Although she adopted a more pragmatist position on foreign policy during the campaign, Takaichi’s nationalist streak could complicate relations with Tokyo’s neighbors, including China, North Korea, South Korea, and Russia. Indeed, Taiwan may be the only full-throated proponent of her policies. These shifting geopolitical dynamics could create new challenges for Japan and its security ally, the U.S., that they will have to navigate together.
Since it became clear that Takaichi would probably serve as Japan’s next prime minister, China, on the one hand, has welcomed the announcement, while on the other expressed concerns about her motives. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for example, hardly exuded confidence in Takaichi, noting “we hope that Japan will abide by the principles and consensus set out in the four political documents between China and Japan, honor its political commitments on major issues such as history and the Taiwan question, follow a positive and rational policy toward China, and put into practice the positioning of comprehensively advancing the strategic relationship of mutual benefit.”
During the 80th anniversary celebration of “Victory Day” to end World War II, which was held in Beijing early last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked that China’s participation in the “resistance war against Japanese aggression” represented “a significant part of the World Anti-Fascist War.” I happened to attend the 12th annual Xiangshan Forum – a Track 1.5 political and security dialogue – in Beijing the following week, and Chinese officials and experts were still basking in the afterglow of this event, headlined by Xi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who were standing and looking strong together. The anti-Japanese flavor of the event was also palpable, suggesting that Takaichi’s nationalist policies would be highly unwelcome in Beijing.
No comments:
Post a Comment