NATO Needs a Realistic Path to 5 Percent Defense Spending by 2035

Brian Chow

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With a politically realistic path, NATO can preserve President Trump’s 5 percent commitment by 2035—and raise an additional $6.3 trillion over the next decade to counter collective adversaries.

At their summit in the Hague, Netherlands, in June, the 32 members of NATO—after years of prodding from President Donald Trump—finally agreed to raise their defense spending target to 5 percent of GDP by 2035. This replaces the vague “2 percent” benchmark set at the 2014 Wales summit with a clear, uniform, and fair 5 percent. Yet that pledge alone is insufficient. NATO must adopt a politically realistic path that steadily raises annual defense spending in order to achieve two essential goals: avoiding an abrupt, politically unacceptable jump from 2034 to 2035, and raising $6.3 trillion over the next decade so that allies can strengthen collective defense immediately rather than waiting a decade.

In the past three and a half years, Russia has seized an additional 12 percent of Ukraine’s territory, bringing total control to about one-fifth of the country (including Crimea, which it occupied in 2014). Even with a best-case peace settlement, Moscow will likely retain control of many of these territories, and will remain an ongoing threat to Moldova, Georgia, Poland, the Baltics, and the rest of Europe. On August 11, David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic noted that China has enabled Russia’s war and is using it to prepare for a showdown with the United States, particularly over Taiwan. On August 26, Xi Jinping declared China and Russia should jointly safeguard their security and development interests.

On September 3, CNN reported Xi, Putin, and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un had appeared publicly together for the first time at a military parade in Beijing. At the time, Trump accused the trio of conspiring against the United States. The president’s claims have merit: North Korea has supplied missiles, and Iran drones, to Russia for use in Ukraine. The joint actions of America’s adversaries heighten the urgency of strengthening NATO’s defenses.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reshaped NATO’s priorities. The United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states have boosted defense spending, but this must spread quickly to all allies—not only to hit 5 percent of GDP by 2035, but to build strength steadily in the coming decade.

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