Andrew Ryvkin
Since the beginning of September, Russia has sent dozens of drones into European airspace. In response, NATO governments have briefly shut down civilian airports, scrambled fighter jets, and invoked NATO’s Article 4—calling for formal consultations among allies.
This pattern of incursions is Vladimir Putin’s most overt attempt to show NATO as hollow and unable to defend its own territory, much less Ukraine. But more remarkable than the provocation itself is how confidently observers in the West deemed it a victory for the Russian president. The intrusions had contributed, one CNN analysis asserted, to a level of confusion and distraction that represented a “win for Putin”—yet another instance of his being depicted as enjoying one success after another, regardless of battlefield losses, unfavorable geopolitical shifts, and growing turbulence at home.
After taking over from the ailing Boris Yeltsin a quarter century ago, Putin started his presidency by projecting a near-comical image of manliness and invincibility. But no one in the Kremlin could have imagined how the West would adopt and then amplify this narrative. If you Google phrases such as victory for Putin and big win for Putin, you find news stories stretching back years: Brexit, Syria, Donald Trump’s presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, Marine Le Pen competing in France’s presidential election, the Israel-Hamas war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is now the public face of opposition to Russian imperialism, but even his election in 2019 was interpreted as a win for Putin.
Putin, a ruthless septuagenarian bent on restoring Russia to its imperial glory, is simply too good a villain for Western politicians and media commentators to ignore. Casting him as omniscient and unstoppable creates a clear story amid the chaos of global affairs. For Trump’s critics, emphasizing Putin’s strength has become another way of denigrating the U.S. president. But this emotionally convenient mythmaking spills over into news and political analysis.
Early in my career, I worked inside several propaganda outlets in Russia. All had an unspoken rule: No matter the crisis, Putin can’t lose. Many Western commentators are unwittingly following that rule too. But overestimating Putin’s power means doing his job for him. It means amplifying every one of his threats, mistaking posturing for reality, and making policy decisions based not on facts but on what Putin wants us to believe. And although he has had some successes—his annexation of Crimea, to name one—Putin’s biggest win comes from convincing the world that he’s winning, even when he isn’t.
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