Lawrence Freedman
The war between Russia and Ukraine is more likely to end with a negotiated ceasefire than with a sweeping military victory though neither seems close. Donald Trump’s peace process has petered out but, perhaps flush with the praise he’s getting over Gaza, he might try again.
At any rate both sides discuss their strategy in terms of getting to the best possible position for an eventual negotiation. They tell Trump they appreciate his endeavours and share his desire for an early peace. Their military efforts, they insist, are directed towards this end. Rather than a bloody fight to finish they want their enemy to realise that it is time to make the vital concessions to get a deal.
A Bloomberg article of 20 September described the conclusions Vladimir Putin drew from his meeting with Trump at Anchorage in mid-August:
‘military escalation is the best way to force Ukraine into talks on his terms and that Donald Trump is unlikely to do much to bolster Kyiv’s defences, according to people close to the Kremlin.’
The key element in Putin’s strategy according to this account was to continue targeting ‘Kyiv’s energy network and other infrastructure.’ It also reported that Putin left Alaska convinced that however hard Russia hit Ukraine, ‘Trump has no interest in intervening in the conflict.’
For his part Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working to prove him wrong. He reports conversations with Trump about how to bolster Ukraine, adding ‘There needs to be readiness on the Russian side to engage in real diplomacy—this can be achieved through strength.’ He can claim some success. More American systems are starting to reach Ukraine, albeit paid for by Europe, and Trump is even discussing, though not yet committing to, the provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles.
This is in part a response to those Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy. These have been stepped up since Anchorage, although the new attacks may simply reflect the availability of large numbers of missiles and drones and the nearness of winter. More on this below. Yet when Putin talks about his special military operation he rarely talks about this feature of the Russian campaign. He focuses instead on the battle for territory, and when he does so he exudes confidence in a coming Russian victory. He has yet to give even a hint of concern that the war cannot be prosecuted to a successful conclusion.
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