Richard Gardiner
Russia’s “gray zone” tactics are a manifestation of growing geopolitical risk by sabotaging and disrupting critical systems throughout the communication and supply chain. Companies and suppliers are stepping up mitigation efforts. Richard Gardiner of consultancy S-RM examines how organized crime proxies acting on behalf of Russian intelligence services provide the Kremlin with plausible deniability for unsophisticated attacks.
While propagandist social media posts and drone incursions are a more visible form of attack, at a more covert level, logistics chokepoints and digital infrastructure are among the most vulnerable targets of Russian hybrid warfare.
The likelihood of US companies’ logistics systems or digital networks being targeted rises sharply if they support Ukraine’s war effort or operate in the defense sector, particularly where they contribute to strengthening European security. By sabotaging or disrupting these businesses, Russian actors seek to delay military aid deliveries, weaken supply chains and undermine the broader war effort.
Such attacks are often carried out by organized crime proxies acting on behalf of Russian intelligence services, providing the Kremlin with plausible deniability. As a result, the tactics used are typically unsophisticated, ranging from arson at warehouses to incendiary devices sent to distribution centers and designed to detonate in transit.
Operational and communications threats
Against this backdrop, operations leaders can alert themselves to several early warning signs that proxy-perpetrated instability could affect their production and supply continuity. One sign is the sudden targeting of well-known US companies through mass disinformation campaigns, efforts specifically designed to erode the reputation and stakeholder confidence of iconic brands. Another indicator is a marked rise in cyberattacks, especially those focused on logistical, communications or industrial control networks, with notable spikes in phishing, ransomware or DDoS incidents. A surge in suspicious arson or vandalism at key European facilities — including warehouses, factories, ports and supply hubs — often shows evidence of coordinated covert activity. Finally, disruptions to critical infrastructure, whether outages in telecoms, power grids, underwater cables or transport networks, are signs that further sabotage attempts may come next, with the intent to paralyze infrastructure.
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