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21 October 2025

The Next Drone Threat Comes from the Sea: Is NATO Ready?

Olena Kryzhanivska

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine barely had a navy. Over the past three years, Ukraine has disabled a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and forced the rest to retreat hundreds of miles to safer harbors.

Instead of relying on traditional, costly naval capabilities that require years to develop, Ukraine focused on building an unmanned fleet, which is now ready for export to countries in need of such systems.

When I met with Rui Costa, a former Portuguese Navy officer, board member of the Royal Netherlands Society of Marine Engineers, and host & co-founder of UNMANNED_X, I intended to focus on Ukraine’s naval drone exports. However, our conversation soon shifted toward the growing threats posed by Russia. In the end, we reached a shared conclusion: NATO countries must prepare not only for aerial threats but also for those emerging from the sea.

Ukraine has developed several types of naval drones, including the most famous unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) — such as Magura and SeaBaby — and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) like Toloka.

In addition to that, there are a few less public innovations, such as Mamai, developed in 2023, and called the fastest vessel in the Black Sea, capable of reaching speeds of up to 110 km/h. Also, at the DEFEA 2025 defense exhibition, company Nordex unveiled its Seawolf – a modular USV platform. Additionally, there is another impressive innovation - the naval drone Katran built for multi-domain warfare. These USVs are modular “motherships” capable of engaging targets in the air, on the surface, and deep behind enemy lines. Katran can accommodate a wide range of armaments — from missile systems to swarms of FPV drones. The platform also uses artificial intelligence for precision targeting.

“Ukraine’s geopolitical context is truly unique; the naval systems in Ukraine were born out of evolutionary pressures — they emerged from the realities of war, not from theory,” says Rui Costa.

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