Nigel Gould-Davies
Western officials are reportedly puzzled by the sudden wave of Russian drone and fighter incursions into their airspace. They should not be. Russia’s actions are the logical result of four wider developments that are reshaping its calculus. The first three are policy choices of America, Europe and China. The fourth is Russia’s own deteriorating domestic condition. Russia’s response has ushered in a new and more dangerous phase of its war in Ukraine.
Deteriorating conditions, growing disquiet
Firstly, United States President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 initially raised Kremlin hopes that his stated goal of ending the war quickly could be used to engineer a decisive shift in favour of Russia and a split in transatlantic relations. Despite intensive diplomatic efforts, culminating in the Alaska summit in August 2025, Russia has failed to achieve this. Although America made unilateral concessions – abandoning demands for an immediate ceasefire and dropping threats of new sanctions – it has not decisively broken with Ukraine or Europe. Trump has uttered harsh words about Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time and continues to provide weapons – now sold, not given – to Ukraine. Nine months of turbulent diplomacy have realised neither Russia’s greatest hopes nor Europe’s deepest fears.
Secondly, Europe is stepping up. At the June 2025 NATO summit, member states agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035. Since Europe’s total GDP is ten times larger than Russia’s, this represents a huge increase in military capability. The EU is also intensifying pressure on Russia’s economy. So far this year, it has adopted four new sanctions packages – the fastest rate since 2022 – and is close to agreeing a fifth. This will be the 19th such package since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Most significantly, the EU is now working on an ambitious plan to provide a €140 billion reparation loan to Ukraine using frozen Russian Central Bank assets. If agreed, this will keep Ukraine afloat and enable it to fight for the next two to three years, while alleviating the burden of support on European taxpayers.
Thirdly, China has tilted more decisively towards Russia. In 2024, NATO designated it a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war due to its sale of military and dual-use goods and complicity in massive sanctions evasion. Last month, Beijing finally agreed to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. Russia had been begging it to do so for years. When completed, it will more than double Russia’s pipeline gas exports to China.
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