Ukraine’s Drone War Is Crippling Russia’s Oil Lifeline

David Kirichenko and Alexander Motyl

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Key Points and Summary – In year four of Russia’s war, Ukraine has flipped the battlefield by striking Russia’s oil network with drones and missiles, idling refineries and triggering rationing, black markets, and fuel station closures.

-Analysts estimate billions in lost refining margins as Moscow raises taxes, trims its 2026 defense budget, and battles inflation and soaring mortgage delinquencies—classic stagflation.

-Washington is deepening support with targeting intelligence and potential Tomahawks while Kyiv scales domestic long-range weapons.

-These pressures expose Kremlin brittleness: mounting casualties, economic decay, and elite frustration raise risks of shocks, a coup, or abrupt leadership change.

-Inside Russia, anger grows.

Russia’s Ukriane War Takes a Nasty Turn for Moscow

It’s now year four of Russia’s war in Ukraine. What was supposed to be a “special military operation” lasting a few weeks has turned into Ukraine’s own special oil operation – one that is steadily eroding Russia’s ability to finance its war. That Donald Trump has gone from telling Volodymyr Zelensky he “had no cards” to now saying Ukraine can take back all its territory suggests that Washington is seeing damning intelligence about the state of Russia. More importantly, it shows how Ukraine has only grown stronger technologically.

Vladimir Putin has long dreamed of restoring the Russian Empire’s greatness and the Soviet Union’s world-power status. What Putin forgets to say is that both empires collapsed and, as his critics insist, that the Russian Federation increasingly resembles the USSR just before its demise. Ironically, Ukrainian drones have reinforced that comparison by forcing Russians back to fuel lines, illegal markets, coupons, and rations, as if it were 1991 all over again.

Many gas stations across Russia are closing or operating at reduced capacity as the government imposes price caps that make margins untenable. Fuel is increasingly being diverted to black markets, where prices in some areas reportedly reach the equivalent of $9 per gallon. “Ukrainian strikes highlight vulnerabilities in Russia’s economy and military, undermining propaganda claims of success and fueling public dissatisfaction,” said Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center.