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29 October 2025

When Will China Begin Earning Nobel Prizes in Science?

Markku Larjavaara

China’s rise in science has been even more dramatic than its rapid economic development. China and the United States currently spend far more on research and development and publish significantly more scientific publications than any other country. Many Chinese scientists are highly cited, but Nobel laureates remain scarce and many in China were once again disappointed when the last prize was awarded on October 13.

Chinese nationals have won the Nobel peace prize (Liu Xiaobo, who has been strenuously disavowed by Beijing) and the Nobel prize for literature (Mo Yan), but malaria researcher Tu Youyou’s 2015 award in medicine is the lone recognition of a Chinese national in the sciences. In the past ten years (2016–2025), China has not received a single one of a total 106 prizes in science and economics while citizens of the United States have earned 63.

Nobel prizes are often awarded for work performed decades earlier, and more Chinese scientists could become laureates in the future. However, as China has earned so few prizes, and the level of Chinese research funding has already been high for some time, the time lag cannot explain most of the difference.

I argue that the current Chinese education and science cultures and policies are not building a curiosity-driven intrinsic motivation among Chinese scientists and are therefore not conducive to game-changing research. Most scientists in every country repeat established methods on well-studied themes. Only exceptionally curious minds instead seek answers to questions about the world around them, and when an answer is not available, they passionately develop a method to get the answer, which may lead to important new openings.

There are three options for increasing the number of these exceptionally curious minds in China. China could attract more foreign scientists, Chinese researchers based abroad could be lured back, or domestic education and research policies could be improved.

Much of the most applauded “American” research has been carried out by recent immigrants. Of the 63 recent laureates having U.S. citizenship, 16 had another passport as well. No wonder that in 2020 China’s President Xi Jinping insisted: “We must progressively open up to international S&T organizations setting up in our country’s territory and foreign-national scientists taking up positions in our country’s academic S&T organizations, making our country into a broad global stage for open S&T cooperation.”

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