Cheryl Benard
In military history, there are instances in which one side unleashes a completely new weapon or form of combat, leaving the adversary so entirely off guard that they are unable to muster any effective defense. The Eurasian rider nomads are an example; their archers stunned the Europeans with their ability to shoot accurately from the back of a galloping horse, an assault method never seen before. Their incredibly agile hit-and-run mounted troops fired off flurries of arrows while attacking at high speed, and then, in a maneuver called the “Parthian shot,” they continued to shoot backwards over their shoulders as they sped away.
The longbow upended medieval combat by adding unparalleled lethal range; the Byzantine use of Greek fire introduced shock and awe into naval battles; the British use of tanks in the First World War brought mobility and firepower to static trench warfare. These are the black swans of combat—forms of attack that you can’t prepare for, because you can’t imagine them. You must then wrap your mind around what just happened, regroup, and alter your defensive and offensive arsenal. If you can’t manage that fast enough, you’re going down.
Europe is presently under attack from just such an unexpected, black-swan form of warfare. The undercover invaders are wreaking havoc, upending the economies, undermining civil security with hitherto unseen levels of crime, splitting domestic politics, degrading the education systems, gridlocking the courts, and altering the cherished cultural practices of their host nations. While also plotting terrorist attacks, building ISIS cells, and unleashing a wave of sexual assault. European governments are struggling even to grasp what is happening, let alone formulate an effective response.
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