Dr Daniel Salisbury
Only North Korea has tested nuclear weapons in the twenty-first century, having exploded six devices since 2006. Before this, the last tests were conducted by India and Pakistan in 1998, and by China and France in 1996. The US has not tested since Congress passed a law to suspend testing for a year in 1992, and Moscow has not conducted an explosive test since 1990, a year before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The context of Trump’s announcement suggests that he may have been referring to tests of nuclear delivery systems, such as missiles, or prior allegations of low-yield ‘supercritical’ testing by Russia. However, the episode remains emblematic of a more dangerous and volatile era where strategic competition continues to raise nuclear risks.
The suggestion of a return to testing came just hours before Trump was due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. The meeting came amidst a tense US-China relationship, with dialogue on arms control suspended since July 2024 over US arms sales to Taiwan. According to current US assessments, China’s nuclear arsenal is growing exponentially in size, with the March 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from the US director of national intelligence noting that China is ‘intent on modernizing, diversifying, and expanding its nuclear posture’.
Since 2020, the Department of Defense Annual Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China has assessed that China’s warhead stockpile has undergone massive growth. In 2020, the report noted that the Chinese arsenal of 200 warheads would ‘at least double in size’ over the subsequent decade. In 2021, the report assessed that China’s arsenal would grow to 700 deliverable warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030.
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