Shalom Lipner
President Trump’s steamrolling toward a lasting deal in Gaza could deliver a crowning blow to the Israeli government.
A potent version of the Changing of the Guard, viewed annually by millions of spectators at Buckingham Palace and Windsor Castle, is playing out presently on the British Empire’s former stomping grounds. The Middle East, where provisions for the aftermath of the Gaza war are the subject of intense discussion and activity, is in the throes of upheaval with principals jockeying to exert influence over the region’s future. One of them, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is getting trampled—or rather, “Trumpled”—royally by the process. The damage to him may be irreversible.
With combat in the Gaza Strip winding down—to the chagrin of some Netanyahu allies who would persist in battle—leadership vacuums have emerged on both sides of the border. Earlier initiatives to draft plans for post-conflict Gaza never came to fruition, owing to, among other factors, Israel’s refusal to countenance any role for the Palestinian Authority. Hamas, which Netanyahu pledged originally to “eliminate,” has seized that opening to exercise violent control over territories evacuated by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Any hopes for alternative rule in Gaza will have to contend with the prospect of armed resistance from retrenched Hamas militants.
A similar void exists within Israel, where the senior ranks of Netanyahu’s professional team are almost emptied out. Ron Dermer—his closest confidant and Trump administration whisperer—has just resigned as strategic affairs minister. His exit follows that of Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel’s national security advisor, who was dismissed on October 21, against the backdrop of disagreements over policy. Tzachi Braverman, the chief of Netanyahu’s personal bureau, will be heading to London shortly as Israel’s next ambassador to the Court of St. James. Major turnover at the top will create an inevitable operational deficit, as experienced hands depart at a critical moment for Israel.
Filling the space enterprisingly is President Donald Trump, who has stepped in to run roughshod over all parties amid a possible collapse of a US-sponsored ceasefire. “If Hamas does not behave,” he threatened on October 29, “they will be terminated.” But it is Israel—whose reliance on America’s diplomatic, military, and economic munificence renders Netanyahu beholden to Trump’s demands—that has been the beneficiary of a tangible, full-court press from Washington. “I pushed [Netanyahu],” the president told 60 Minutes on October 31, “I didn’t like certain things that he did, and you saw what I did about that.”
No comments:
Post a Comment