Elkhan Nuriyev
For decades, global order rested on a simple premise: U.S. economic and military supremacy structured the system, and others adjusted. From the Bretton Woods institutions to the post-Cold War unipolar moment, Washington stood at the center of both the global economy and its security architecture.
That model is now under strain. The United States continues to dominate the world’s financial plumbing: the dollar accounts for about 58 percent of official foreign-exchange reserves, roughly half of global trade invoicing, and more than 40 percent of cross-border debt issuance. The Federal Reserve remains the world’s de facto central bank, and dollar liquidity still sets the rhythm of global markets. Even governments that oppose U.S. policy – China, Russia, Iran – remain dependent on the dollar’s gravitational pull for trade and reserves.
Yet financial supremacy no longer translates into political alignment. The illusion that economic globalization and U.S. leadership were mutually reinforcing has faded. Globalization has not collapsed – it has simply diversified. What was once a single, U.S.-anchored system has become a network of overlapping regional and functional orders.
Across Asia, the logic of “multialignment” is taking root. China has built a parallel financial and connectivity infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and regional digital platforms that challenge Western models. India, the Gulf states, and much of Southeast Asia are hedging – maintaining security ties with Washington while deepening trade, energy, and technology links with Beijing and Moscow. Even U.S. partners such as Japan and South Korea are exploring limited autonomy through regional financial cooperation and local-currency initiatives.
This pattern reflects a deeper shift: countries now view U.S. financial leverage as both indispensable and risky. Dependence on the dollar remains, but it has become a strategic calculation rather than an automatic choice. China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), India’s rupee-denominated trade arrangements, and BRICS proposals for alternative settlement mechanisms are not yet serious competitors to the dollar. But their political purpose is clear – to build options.
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