James Durso
Now the election is over and Sudani faces the task of building a governing coalition. (After the 2021 election, it took one year to form a government.) 38 political parties won seats in the contest, so Iraq’s complex political landscape will demand negotiation and consensus building to form a government. Other major winners are former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki (Shia/State of Law Coalition), former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi (Sunni/Taqadom (Progress) party), former militia leader Qais al-Khazali (Shia/Sadiqoun Movement), and the Kurdistan Democratic Party.
Whoever can corral enough support to become Iraq’s next prime minister faces four major challenges: the water crisis, public finances, U.S. relations, and regional entanglement with Iran.
Iraq’s most immediate problem is water scarcity. It depends on Turkey and Iran for nearly 75% of its freshwater through the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which originate upstream. Torhan al-Mufti, Sudani’s advisor on water affairs, warns that Iraq’s vulnerability stems from these transboundary flows.
There is some good news: according to Mufti, water inflows from Turkey to the Tigris have doubled in two years. And Iraq is taking proactive steps, such as the November 2025 Iraq-Turkey water agreement that introduces a five-year water management mechanism between the two nations. Under the deal, Turkey will oversee and manage water releases and related infrastructure rehabilitation, including dams and distribution systems, during this period, after which control will revert to Iraq.
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