Nina M. Armagno and Jane Harman
Space is a strategic vulnerability. The United States has more strategic assets in space than any other country. Almost as important, dynamic American companies—particularly SpaceX—have revolutionized space, placing in orbit thousands of commercial satellites on which the U.S. economy increasingly depends. But other countries are following suit. China in particular is on track to have thousands of its own satellites in orbit in the not-too-distant future.
Further complicating matters, the space assets that the United States already has—mostly satellites, but also ground stations and modes of communication—are increasingly vulnerable now that China and Russia have developed the means to divert, disable, or destroy them. The methods include electronic warfare and jamming as well as direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles.1
Space is a strategic challenge. Space is becoming more congested by the year. Since 2018, the number of satellite payloads orbiting in low Earth orbit (LEO)—that is, objects below an altitude of 1,200 miles—has more than quadrupled.2 Then there is space debris—defunct objects or fragments of human-made materials. Over 40,000 items of space debris greater than 10 cm in diameter now orbit Earth at speeds of up to 18,000 miles per hour. This increase in space traffic and space debris makes collisions more likely. It also threatens the lives of astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) and on the space stations being constructed by China and Russia. China, Russia, and the United States are the source of most of that debris and share an interest in avoiding collisions, but they are also wary of one another’s intentions.
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