Israel Cannot Destroy Its Way to Peace
Marc Lynch
A Palestinian boy at the site of an overnight Israeli strike in Gaza, October 2025Mahmoud Issa / ReutersMARC LYNCH is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University and the author of America’s Middle East: The Ruination of a Region.More by Marc Lynch
The regional order of the Middle East is rapidly evolving, but not in the way many Israeli and U.S. officials assume it is. U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Gaza delivered the release of all the surviving Israeli hostages and a respite from the relentless killing and destruction that has so scarred the territory. That breakthrough raised hopes of a broader regional transformation, even if what comes after the initial cease-fire remains hugely uncertain. Trump himself speaks of the dawn of peace in the Middle East. If his deal prevents the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and the annexation of the West Bank, many Arab governments may once again be eager to explore normalizing ties with Israel. Indeed, Israelis saw how Arab leaders pressured Hamas to accept Trump’s deal as evidence that normalization could be back on the table.
But even if the Gaza deal holds, this moment of U.S.-Israeli convergence won’t last. Israel’s mistaken belief that the country has established permanent strategic superiority over its adversaries will almost certainly lead it to take increasingly provocative actions that directly challenge the goals of the White House. The Gulf states that Israel dreams of bringing into its fold doubt that it is willing or able to protect their core interests. They are now less concerned about confronting Iran—and less convinced that the road to Washington leads through Tel Aviv. And Israel seems not to grasp the extent of Trump’s affinities with the Gulf states.
Wishful thinking has pervaded the Israeli government and national security establishment, which have reveled in the opportunities created by the country’s exercise of strength. After the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Israel embarked on a cascading series of airstrikes and interventions across the region aimed not just at Hamas but at the entire Iranian-led axis, repeatedly crossing redlines that had long governed the regional shadow war, killing leaders who had been viewed as untouchable: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah with a massive bomb dropped in central Beirut, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in an Iranian safe house, multiple Iranian military commanders in Syria, and the Houthi prime minister of Yemen. Its bombing of nuclear and military sites in Iran represented the culmination of Israel’s long-held desire to strike at the heart of its greatest foe.
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