Benjamin Reed
Things are not going well for Ukraine. They are not going particularly well for Russia either, but Kyiv carries the harsher burden of attrition. Moscow has absorbed staggering losses while sustaining a steady flow of manpower through mobilization, coerced contract recruitment, penal battalions, and limited contingents of North Korean troops. Ukraine lacks that demographic cushion and must conserve every trained soldier it has.
The summer offensive season ended without a defining Russian breakthrough. Moscow pushed on several axes—Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, and southern Donetsk—but none became the operational success the Kremlin hoped to frame as a strategic shift. Pokrovsk remains the focal point; Russian forces have entered the city and continue costly infiltration tactics, yet Ukrainian defenses hold the shoulders and prevent encirclement. The front advances in meters, not kilometers, with Russian forces trading lives at unsustainable ratios for modest gains.
Despite the pressure, Ukraine still holds roughly 19 to 21 percent of Donetsk Oblast, including the fortified belt anchoring Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Those two cities remain the real strategic prizes. Sloviansk, the flashpoint of the 2014 conflict, carries symbolic weight in Moscow’s mythology of “Novorossiya.” As long as Ukraine holds this line, Russia cannot credibly claim to have secured the region.
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