Sam Cranny-Evans and Dr Sidharth Kaushal
Recently, there have been a series of reports that Ukraine’s ability to intercept the Russian 9M723 Iskander-M ballistic missile with Patriot interceptors is deteriorating. Given the sensitivities around the subject, precise reasons have not been provided although several reports have alluded to software upgrades which have allowed the Iskander to manoeuvre more effectively in its terminal phase, thus evading Patriot interceptors. This article seeks to evaluate the plausibility of both this and other competing hypotheses regarding the seeming increase in the performance of the 9M723. It does not provide conclusive answers but rather an assessment of the relative weight which researchers might attach to competing explanations.
It is worth beginning by noting that one should be cautious in interpreting data regarding intercept rates. The use of percentages predisposes readers to assume that there is, all other things being equal, a given likelihood of any missile being intercepted by a particular defensive system. In reality the data is marked by discontinuities and largely driven by specific high impact events.
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