Siddhant Kishore
For decades, Pakistan has exploited the paradox of nuclear stability, waging a perpetual low-intensity conflict against India while staying below the threshold of overt conventional war. Pakistan-backed terrorist groups operate under the assumption that India will not risk a nuclear escalation. This provides Pakistan, which does not have a no-first-use policy, the advantage of issuing nuclear threats to quell the prospects of a conventional conflict with India. However, Pakistan’s deterrence logic was undermined during the four-day conflict in May, when India ignored Islamabad’s nuclear signaling and established what Prime Minister Narendra Modi described as a “new normal”: He warned that conventional military strikes would follow if Pakistan-based terrorist groups launched another attack on Indian soil.
The new norm set by India’s Operation Sindoor military campaign has forced Pakistani strategic planners to reassess their long-standing doctrine of “bleeding India by a thousand cuts.” Speaking at a black-tie dinner in Florida on August 9, Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir made a series of provocative remarks about India. Munir reportedly threatened to destroy “with 10 missiles” any Indian dam built to control the Indus River, addressing India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty governing distribution of water in the river. Muinir further warned that Pakistan would “take half the world down with us” if faced with an existential threat from India.
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