Sam Greene, Andrei Soldatov, and Irina Borogan
Severed cables. Disrupted aviation. Arson. Sabotage. Assassination. Infiltration. Attacks designed to distract, to confuse, and to dismay an adversary – but not to provoke a response. Such is shadow warfare, causing damage and costing lives but operating below the traditional threshold of war.
Shadow War as System, Not Strategy
Even as Ukraine continues to suffer under wave after wave of bombardment and an ever deepening occupation of its eastern and southern territory, Europe as a whole is under a sustained assault of a different kind. Earlier this year, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) launched a major new project—Defend, Deny, Deter: Countering Russia’s Shadow Warfare—to help lay the groundwork for a new transatlantic approach to deterrence.
In the first phase of this project, CEPA Senior Non-Resident Fellows Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan explore the who, what, why and how of Russian shadow warfare, uncovering the nature of the forces Russia brings to bear, their governance structures and, critically, the implicit doctrine that shapes strategic and tactical decision-making. Their analysis shows that shadow warfare is not merely an opportunistic tool, but an expression of a deep, self-reinforcing system of governance. Later in the year, CEPA will publish further studies, examining Europe’s vulnerabilities and testing strategies of retaliation and deterrence.
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