Gabriel Elefteriu
No one knows exactly how or when the Ukraine war will end. But all realistic scenarios are now unfavourable to Kyiv. Serious assessments of Ukraine’s military, economic and social-political problems – now aggravated by the shocking corruption scandal at the top of the State – vary only in severity; none are positive. A Ukrainian “defeat” would have major perceived consequences for European security, albeit there is also much hyperbole on this point. Far more problematic would be the seismic shock that would hit Europe’s already-fraught politics as a result. This could well become Europe’s version of America’s vicious “Who lost China?” debate after 1949.
The China controversy was one of the most convulsive reckonings in early Cold War Washington. It erupted after Mao’s Communists won the Chinese civil war against American-supported Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalists who retreated to Taiwan. In geopolitical and strategic terms it was seen as a vast, unmitigated disaster for US policy. Defeat for the West, victory for the Reds, the rest of Asia now up for grabs: A first-order debacle.
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