India And Pakistan Both Think They Won “Operation Sindoor”—That’s The Problem

Robert Farley

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Operation Sindoor’s three-day clash in May 2025 delivered a paradox: restraint without resolution. India struck Pakistani-linked militant targets to reassert deterrence below the nuclear threshold, while Pakistan claims it bloodied India’s air arm and proved it could impose costs. That “win-win” perception is the real danger—both sides are drawing confidence rather than caution. India is accelerating modernization in intelligence and acquisition, while Pakistan leans into Chinese weapons and support. Meanwhile, geopolitics complicates crisis control: India hedges with Russia and the West, Pakistan deepens reliance on China, and Washington’s role appears unpredictable. T

Operation Sindoor Was Only Three Days. Its Next War Risk Could Last Much Longer. In May of last year, India and Pakistan fought a short, sharp conflict that has come to be called “Operation Sindoor,” after the Indian code name for the campaign. India launched the campaign in response to a terrorist attack perpetrated by two Pakistani-based militias.