Touqir Hussain
Historically, Afghanistan has shrewdly exploited foreign powers’ interests in the country, whether during the Anglo-Russian Great Game or the Cold War, by playing opposing powers off against each other. The strategy ensured the security and financial viability of a country whose many political faultlines (ethnic, tribal, regional, sectarian, ideological) and landlocked status make it difficult to function as a stable modern state. In the first three quarters of the 20th century, a Pashtun-dominated, elitist ruling establishment that shared power with regional strongmen provided an uneasy stability and a measure of functional statehood. But it unraveled following the overthrow of the monarchy in 1973, plunging the country into four decades of war, regional isolation, and domestic ideological and ethnic strife.
The country that the Taliban took over in August 2021 was neither pacified nor stabilized. Lacking legitimacy at home and recognition abroad, a factionalized Taliban now presides over a divided population, an unravelling economy, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. To secure economic and political support from countries in the region, the Islamic Emirate is following the same old Afghan strategy of leveraging one relationship against another. In the present case, India against Pakistan, Iran against Pakistan, India against China, and China against the United States.
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