Alex Plitsas
As a turbulent year comes to a close, the Middle East is entering another period of acute strategic tension. There is a complex web of players involved: Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, alongside armed nonstate actors including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and multiple factions within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces. No one should confuse the patchwork of temporary cease-fire agreements in place throughout the region for sustainable deterrence and peace, as underlying issues remain unresolved and adversaries’ desired end states remain diametrically opposed.
There is an elevated risk of renewed multi-theater conflict over the coming months. This risk is driven by three converging dynamics: Iran’s effort to reconstitute strategic strike and deterrent capabilities, the continued refusal of Hezbollah and Hamas to disarm, and the increasing linkage between regional theaters from Gaza and southern Lebanon to Iraq and the Red Sea.
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