What a post-US world order might look like

Zohaib Tariq

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Ibn Khaldun, the 14th-century giant of political philosophy, argued that every great power passes through a natural civilizational cycle lasting five generations—roughly 125 years—before decline becomes unmistakable.

If we place the United States within this framework, its global arc began with the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 and reached full dominance after World War I. By that measure, the US-led rules-based international order has already outlived the historical life expectancy Ibn Khaldun envisioned for empires.

Had he been alive today, Ibn Khaldun might have credited America’s longevity to one factor he considered essential for state survival: the endurance of a functioning and credible justice system. As long as justice prevails, he wrote, a state can endure.