Catherine Knowles
Recorded Future warns that cyber operations have become a routine tool of geopolitical competition, with constant, fragmented activity replacing the high-profile attacks that often dominate headlines.
In its 2026 State of Security Report, the threat intelligence firm describes a shift in which cyber activity now sits alongside physical conflict, coercion, and espionage as a practical way to gain leverage.
The report cites geopolitical fragmentation and wider use of artificial intelligence as key drivers of instability. It argues that persistent activity is now the norm, rather than waves of discrete incidents.
"Uncertainty is no longer episodic-it's the operating environment," said Levi Gundert, Recorded Future's Chief Security & Intelligence Officer.
"As geopolitical norms weaken, state objectives, criminal capability, and private-sector technology are increasingly reinforcing one another, compressing warning timelines and expanding plausible deniability. AI is accelerating that dynamic not through autonomous attacks, but by scaling deception and eroding trust inside decision-making processes. In 2026, cyber risk will be defined less by singular events and more by persistent, fragmented pressure that reshapes competition, escalation, and stability over time."
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