Era Dabla-Norris and Anton Korinek
What if the next five years reshape the global economy more than the last fifty? The answer depends on whom you ask.
Traditional economists and policymakers in Washington see artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology akin to electricity or the internet, with benefits unfolding gradually. Productivity gains, in this view, depend on complementary investments in skills, infrastructure, and institutions. History is the guide: Past innovations took decades to diffuse and deliver broad-based growth. Let us call this the Washington Consensus on AI.
The San Francisco Consensus on AI sees it differently: Scaled-up models and data and improving algorithms will soon deliver transformative AI, possibly even superintelligence, capable of remaking economies and societies on a much shorter timeline. In this view, breakthroughs will arrive soon, rapidly and recursively, making the coming years potentially among the most consequential in centuries. This is not science fiction. AI systems have already become remarkably capable at programming—for example, Anthropic's Claude Code, an AI coding assistant, was used to build Claude Cowork, a desktop automation tool, demonstrating that AI can now substantially contribute to the creation of new AI products. Such developments raise the real possibility of recursive self-improvement, in which AI systems accelerate their own advancement and significantly increase growth.
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