The global supply of refined copper is likely to be constrained in 2026 and beyond by a combination of disruptions and strategic stockpiling by the United States. Market tightness is being shaped by a convergence of supply-chain frictions, policy choices and accelerating demand from electricity grids, defence production and the construction of infrastructure related to artificial intelligence (AI).
Copper is an essential input for both traditional manufacturing and construction as well as the green-energy and digital industries. Consequently, its supply–demand balance is important for the global economy. Subdued global economic activity has placed limits on overall copper demand for now, but usage is growing rapidly in the renewable-energy, electric-vehicle (EV) and AI sectors. On the supply side, copper mining faces challenges in the form of resource nationalism, environmental regulation, adverse weather and public opposition. Due to these factors, it is likely that the market will move into a structural deficit in the 2030s. Lessons from the past suggest that, rather than derailing the green transition or AI roll-out, high prices will incentivise greater recycling, and technological breakthroughs will likely reduce the quantities of metal needed.
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