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9 March 2026

The Drone Attrition Trap

David Petraeus, and Clara Kaluderovic

Recent U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran and the latter’s retaliatory strikes have once again demonstrated the mathematics of modern air defense. Waves of Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones—crude, slow, and estimated to cost as little as $20,000 apiece—have in a number of exchanges forced the United States and several Gulf partners to expend Patriot and SM-6 interceptors that cost millions of dollars each.

Interception rates have been impressive. A successful shoot-down that requires a high-end interceptor, however, can be a Pyrrhic victory. The defender burns through scarce and expensive munitions while the attacker draws from comparatively large stockpiles of low-cost systems. This is the drone attrition trap. And it is not new.

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