Islam Supyaldiyarov
In a 2024 article, Navigating New Realities: Central Asia’s Role in Contemporary Geopolitics, my co-authors and I argued that the Central Asia was experiencing a structural change. Driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the growing ambitions of China, we contended that the region's states were no longer objects of influence but were taking on a more active role in international politics. Going back to this point at the beginning of 2026, the record of experience has not only ascertained it; it has exceeded it.
The speed, complexity, and multi-dimensionality of the transformation of Central Asia requires a significantly enhanced analytical structure; one that goes beyond the Russia-China dichotomy, takes into account the institutional inertia of the region, and takes seriously the material interests that have rendered Central Asia essential to virtually each of the major powers on the planet.
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