Shiraz Maher
Like the fruit of the medlar tree, the ceasefire between Iran and the United States threatened to turn rotten before it was ripe. Barely hours after it was announced, Israel launched a series of blistering attacks on Beirut, while both Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reported Iranian drone strikes. Each side accused the other of misrepresenting the deal, with confusion over its precise terms. Amid that backdrop, negotiators finally met in Islamabad, but eventually walked away after failing to reach an agreement. President Trump responded almost immediately by announcing a full blockade of all Iranian ports, with a series of commensurate threats following from Iran, which threaten retaliation against partners in the Gulf.
All this reveals the extent to which each side distrusts the other, a factor that will provide the most significant hurdle in securing a lasting settlement. While some reports suggest that mediators may soon meet again, conflicting statements from Pakistani and Iranian officials have made it difficult to read what the Islamic Republic will do next. In any case, the region’s potted history of conflict and conciliation reveals an uneven catalogue of both success and failure from high-level diplomatic initiatives.
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