Joshua Kurlantzick
The Iran war appears no closer to ending, despite a ceasefire and ongoing negotiations, and Tehran seems emboldened by these developments. Part of Iran’s calculus may be that it can take advantage of the leverage it has over the global economy—demonstrated by its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz—and effectively outlast the White House’s economic pain threshold. (Iran had opened the strait during this ceasefire, and then it quickly closed it again.)
But Iran has also benefited significantly from autocratic partners’ help. China and Russia, among others, have continued to provide critical support to Iran during the war, sometimes using existing hard-to-track trade and shipping methods that these countries have perfected. Since the war started, China has provided Iran with satellite navigation, radar systems, and electronic warfare technologies, and appears ready to supply shoulder-fired missiles that would upgrade Iran’s anti-air defenses. It also has continued to buy Iran’s oil, providing it with critical cash through a network of tankers designed to avoid sanctions. Iran itself, without help from China, has utilized these types of false-registered tankers to back other autocrats, such as by supplying Iranian fuel to the junta in Myanmar.
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