Beyond S-400, Rafale & BrahMos: Why India Must Learn From Israel, Ukraine & Iran’s Cheap Lethality Playbook

Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (R)

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War has always been shaped by the tools available to fight it. What is unprecedented today is not merely the sophistication of weapons but their affordability. The modern battlefield is no longer exclusively dominated by expensive platforms such as Rafales, S-400 SAMs, or F-35s.

Instead, it is increasingly influenced by cheap, smart, and expendable systems that place destructive power in the hands of both states and non-state actors.

Small drones, loitering munitions, autonomous ground vehicles, and robotic systems have dramatically altered the cost calculus of war. A few thousand dollars can now threaten assets worth millions. This inversion of cost and effect is transforming warfare in ways that carry profound implications for India’s security.

Why the Afghan-Pakistan Frontier Won’t Settle Down in 2026

Giorgio Cafiero

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Gunfire and airstrikes now define the Afghan-Pakistan frontier. Over the past year, violence along the border has surged as relations between Kabul and Islamabad have plunged to their most dangerous point since the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Islamist rulers of allowing militant groups—most notably the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)—to operate from Afghan soil, launching deadly attacks across the border. Islamabad has answered with an increasingly aggressive military response, and with 2026 approaching, the prospect of a negotiated settlement appears remote as momentum builds toward broader Pakistani operations inside Afghanistan.

This deterioration is striking, given Islamabad’s long history of support for the Taliban. Pakistan was one of only three countries to recognize the Islamic Emirate in the 1990s, and its main intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was the Afghan Taliban’s chief sponsor throughout the 2001–21 US-led occupation of Afghanistan. Yet the Taliban’s return to power almost four-and-a-half years ago has brought not strategic depth but strategic strain. Cross-border attacks attributed to the TTP and BLA have intensified, and Pakistan now openly accuses the Afghan Taliban of tolerating, if not enabling, the militants threatening its internal security.

The Oligarchs Who Ate Pakistan

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Pakistan is not simply mismanaged; it is being methodically harvested by a small, tightly connected elite that has turned the state into an extraction machine rather than a public trust. Over the past three decades, that machine has been refined to the point where its workings can be described with clinical precision. This investigation sets out to do exactly that: to move past the lazy language of “corruption” and show, in concrete institutional and financial detail, how a narrow oligarchy has captured the commanding heights of the economy and re‑engineered public institutions to serve private ends.

The starting point is an unusually blunt diagnosis from the International Monetary Fund in late 2025. In a 186‑page governance and corruption assessment, the Fund stopped speaking in euphemisms and put a number on what it calls “elite capture.” Pakistan, it concluded, could increase its output by roughly five to six and a half percent if it dismantled the privileges and policy distortions enjoyed by a small group of politically connected actors. Those actors include large business groups and enterprises owned by or affiliated with the state – a careful way of acknowledging the military’s sprawling commercial empire. This is not a slogan from a protest march; it is a quantified judgment buried in the paperwork of Pakistan’s twenty‑sixth IMF programme. For the first time, an official creditor has effectively endorsed what many Pakistani economists and journalists have argued for years: that the country’s central economic problem is not a lack of reform, but the way reform has been consistently bent to protect the interests of an entrenched elite.

Will the Gulf’s Bet on AI Pay Off?

Wasay Mir

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Last month, following Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s White House visit, the US Commerce Department approved an estimated $1 billion sale of 35,000 advanced Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN and the UAE’s G42. The move signals Washington’s willingness to enlist Gulf energy wealth in its AI race with China, which President Trump has called a “national security imperative.”

The approval marks a sharp reversal from the Biden administration’s restrictive approach to AI chip exports, reflecting a new calculus that views Gulf allies as partners rather than risks in the technology competition with Beijing. The Gulf has the ambition and the financial muscle, but building data centers in one of the world’s hottest, driest regions presents challenges that money alone can’t solve.

U.S. Tech Companies Are Helping Terrorists to Weaponize AI Part I

Robert Williams

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"ChatGPT Advises Users On How To Attack A Sports Venue, Buy Nuclear Material On Dark Web, Weaponize Anthrax, Build Spyware, Bombs..." — Middle East Media and Research Institute (MEMRI), November 20, 2025.

Meanwhile, Google is helping Qatar's terror-promoting Al Jazeera television network to be even more effective at terrorist propaganda: On December 21, Al Jazeera announced that it was expanding its collaboration with Google Cloud on the network's new initiative, "The Core," that will integrate AI into its news operations.

Perhaps a start would be for the US government to "look into" what world-leading companies working with AI, such as Google, are doing to aid supporters and promoters of terrorism such as Al-Jazeera?

Why Russia Is Equipping Its Drones with Starlink Terminals

Brandon J. Weichert

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At the start of the Ukraine War, the Russian Armed Forces were intent on cutting the Ukrainians off from the outside world. They targeted the country’s telecommunications network, destroying key land-based communications arrays. But the Russians discovered that the Ukrainians were unaffected by these attacks—specifically because Elon Musk initially allowed Ukraine to use his dynamic Starlink satellite network for free.

This kept the Ukrainians going, as they were able to use the Starlink systems to evade Russian disruptions across the electromagnetic (EM) field and continue running their drone attacks against Russian lines.

Moscow naturally protested. The Americans praised Musk. That is, until Musk realized the dangers to his investment.

What the Donald Trump-Benjamin Netanyahu Summit Really Means

Abdulla Al Junaid

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As President Donald Trump hosts Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago today, the United States faces a strategic recalibration across multiple global theatres. And while framed as a discussion of Gaza’s future, this summit will advance President Trump’s broader geopolitical vision rather than serve Prime Minister Netanyahu’s agenda.

With Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific demanding sustained attention, the Trump administration cannot afford to remain indefinitely focused on Gaza. Reclaiming US influence in South America and the standoff with Venezuela are also top priorities for the president. Consequently, the imperative for President Trump to transition the United States from a direct security guarantor in the Middle East to a more removed strategic architect has never been clearer.

Phase two of the Gaza plan, which focuses on the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza, will constitute the summit’s immediate priority. Israeli government Spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian confirmed that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu “will discuss the future steps and phases and the international stabilization force of the ceasefire plan.”

Learning From the Past, Leading in the Present

Gary Anderson

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Eventually, the American public is going to realize that, in too many cases, its armed forces are being led by senior officers who are either moral cripples or uniformed incompetents. Worse, very few have been held accountable for their deficiencies. That is not true in all cases, but many of our four-star leaders have proved unequal to the tasks assigned them. This is a damning assessment, but I am not alone in that judgment.

Although An Army Officer doesn’t go into specific details, this could be describing the current senior leaders of any branch. I will give some concrete examples.

For two full decades, the revolving door of flag officers who commanded in Afghanistan continued to try to build an Afghan army in the U.S. image. The fact that they were failing miserably got papered over time and again. They declared entire provinces to be fit to turn over to the Afghan security forces when they knew full well that the Afghans as currently configured were not — and never would be — ready. If they had reservations, they hid them under “cover your butt” memos or private conversations with their civilian masters.

Will the BRICS ‘UNIT’ really challenge the dollar?

Chris Ogden

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BRICS presents an alternative to the Western-led neoliberal order. Image: X Screengrab

At a major summit in Russia last year, a banknote was unveiled that carried more symbolism than monetary value.

It hinted at the growing ambitions of BRICS+ – a group of emerging economies anchored by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – to develop alternatives to the existing global financial system.

The banknote itself, ringed with national flags and multilingual text, was dubbed an R5: acknowledging the ruble, real, rupee, renminbi and rand of the bloc’s core members.

Now, there are moves to turn that symbolism into something more concrete. This December, speculation increased around plans for a new BRICS+ currency and payment system known as 

Israel Mulls New Iran Strikes as Strategic Restraint Collapses

Dr. Mohamed ELDoh

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As of December, the confrontation between Israel and Iran has entered a volatile phase – one marked not by rhetoric alone, but by a clear military signaling and a narrowing diplomatic window. In the space of days, a cluster of developments, including missile tests across Iran, executions linked to espionage, senior military warnings in Israel, and parallel declarations of readiness from Tehran, have reinforced a growing belief among Israeli decision-makers that the confrontation is already approaching a point of no return.

Israel’s increasing likelihood of striking Iran does not stem from a single trigger but from the convergence of several strategic trends, including accelerating Iranian missile restocking and signaling, nuclear ambiguity absent verification, and the expansion and confidence of Iran’s proxy network, in addition to the collapse of mutual restraint in the intelligence and deterrence domain. Taken together, these dynamics are reshaping Israel’s calculus from risk management to preventive action.

The Middle East is on the brink of a new crisis. Here’s where it could start.

Alex Plitsas 

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As a turbulent year comes to a close, the Middle East is entering another period of acute strategic tension. There is a complex web of players involved: Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, alongside armed nonstate actors including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and multiple factions within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces. No one should confuse the patchwork of temporary cease-fire agreements in place throughout the region for sustainable deterrence and peace, as underlying issues remain unresolved and adversaries’ desired end states remain diametrically opposed.

There is an elevated risk of renewed multi-theater conflict over the coming months. This risk is driven by three converging dynamics: Iran’s effort to reconstitute strategic strike and deterrent capabilities, the continued refusal of Hezbollah and Hamas to disarm, and the increasing linkage between regional theaters from Gaza and southern Lebanon to Iraq and the Red Sea.

To save Gaza, Arab nations must oust Hamas — or have Israel do it by force

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President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza is stuck in first gear, and while a tenuous ceasefire is holding, none of the long-term underlying issues are close to resolution.

Per “phase one” of the agreement, Israel has retreated to a security buffer zone comprising about half of Gaza, leaving Hamas to brutally reassert itself in a rump state, where it is killing opponents, trying to rearm and vowing to carry out another bloody terror attack on Israel as soon as it can.

The next phase of the process — in which Hamas is supposed to disarm and turn power over to an unnamed group of Palestinian technocrats — is stalled, and it’s unclear how or when it will begin, or who will enforce it.

Meanwhile, Hamas and its estimated 25,000 militants continue to fire on Israeli forces, clearly itching to provoke Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a major response that the terror group can use as fodder for its propaganda war.

The Florida Framework—Sunshine, Symbolism and Searching for Peace

Imran Khalid

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The war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year with no clear resolution in sight. Yet, the diplomatic flurry sparked by the mid-December meetings in Miami between American, Russian, Ukrainian and European envoys has injected significant momentum into efforts to end the conflict.

Building on prior discussions, the Miami talks focused on refining a revised 20-point peace framework, evolved from an earlier U.S. draft that had drawn criticism from some for appearing too favorable to Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described the current U.S.-Ukrainian aligned plan as approximately 90 percent complete, with key elements including robust security guarantees for Ukraine (modeled on NATO-like commitments), economic recovery provisions, and potential compromises on contested issues. Russia's envoy Kirill Dmitriev called the Miami discussions "constructive," a diplomatic term that signals ongoing engagement even amid deep disagreements.

Iranian Influence Operation Targeting Israeli Arabs Exposed

Ari Ben Am, Bridget Toomey

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Iran’s probing of Israeli society for vulnerabilities is expanding beyond the Jewish population. Israeli NGO “FakeReporter” uncovered a multipronged influence operation targeting Israel’s Arab population on December 19. The suspected Iranian operation, which operated in Arabic, shared politically contentious content intended to stoke tensions in Israel’s Arab community. Through a range of false organizations and accounts, this influence network convinced legitimate political, media, and civil society actors to amplify its message without knowing who was truly behind it.

This operation is only the latest in Iran’s unending — and perpetually creative — malign cyber campaigns. Despite an end to military strikes between Iran and Israel, the ongoing “shadow war” between the two presents the perfect arena for Tehran to exploit cyber vulnerabilities.

The Audit 2025 - Part 2 Lawrence looks at what he got right and wrong

Lawrence Freedman

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I follow Sam’s end of year audit with one of my own. For those interested here are my previous ones from 2022, 2023, and 2024. One purpose is to see what I have got right and wrong but I also find it useful to look at how themes developed during the year and what this might suggest for the coming year.

While on occasion I post on positive developments by and large my posts deal with war. I have written about several this year, including the DRC and Rwanda as well as India and Pakistan. One of my regrets is that I did not get round to the war in Sudan. Nor have I looked at what is going on between the Trump administration and Venezuela, or for that matter Cambodia and Thailand. I turned to Gaza a few times, although neglected it during the spring. I also spent time on the short fight between Israel and Iran in June, in which the US briefly joined in. I have said hardly anything about China, other than in connection with tariffs, although it could be seen as the geopolitical winner for 2025. My focus has been Euro-centric, with the majority of my posts concerned with the Russo-Ukrainian War and the efforts by the Trump administration to bring it to a close.

Poland To Build $2.4 Billion Anti-Drone Defense System Along Eastern Border

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Poland aims to finish building a new series of anti-drone defenses costing more than €2 billion ($2.4 billion) along its eastern frontier within the next two years, a senior defense official told The Guardian in remarks published on Saturday.

“We expect to have the first capabilities of the system in roughly six months, perhaps even sooner. And the full system will take 24 months to complete,” Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk, said in an interview with the outlet.

Warsaw revised security plans that were already underway to strengthen its eastern borders after multiple Russian drone incursions earlier this year.

On Sept. 9, at least 19 Russian drones overshot Ukrainian airspace and entered Poland, forcing airport shutdowns, prompting fighter jet scrambles, and causing damage to buildings as air defenses shot the drones down.

Trump Promised Radical Change in His Second Term. Here’s What He’s Done So Far.

Charlie Savage and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

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Donald J. Trump promised to drive America in a different direction. One year into his second term, he is doing so, enacting or seeking fundamental changes to policy, politics and society.

He has driven illegal crossings at the border to record lows and has made clear that the United States has shut the door to most nonwhite refugees. He has eliminated diversity programs in the government and has pushed corporate America to do the same.

He helped bring about an uneasy cease-fire in Gaza, threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine and sent the military to kill suspected drug smugglers at sea while deploying troops under federal control into the streets of U.S. cities. He has put immense strain on relations with traditional allies and has pursued policies, including on cryptocurrencies, that have enriched his family and some of his top aides.

He has upended the global trading system by raising taxes on imports, arguing that doing so would eventually bring back jobs. At the same time, he has extended big corporate and income tax cuts from his first term. He has reversed Biden administration policies intended to address climate change, dismantled government agencies without getting congressional approval and slashed the federal work force.

The Asian danger from Trump's spheres-of-interest approach

Bill Emmott

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For Japan, South Korea and other Asian security allies, the good news about America’s new National Security Strategy when it was published on December 5th was that they were not treated as shockingly badly as were the Europeans. Unlike the UK and the European Union, they were not attacked, were not warned that they were risking “civilizational erasure” by accepting immigrants and were not threatened with US interference in their domestic politics.

But the fact that the Trump administration did not treat its Asian allies with the same contempt does not mean they can relax.

The central truth about the Trump-Vance presidency, which this new document confirmed though did not initiate, is that this administration does not care about the grouping that used to be called the West and does not consider allies to be an important factor or asset in its foreign policy and diplomacy. The meaning of “America First” that has emerged during 2025 is one that is not at all isolationist but, rather, one that prioritizes a narrow interpretation of America’s national interests.

How Oil, Drugs and Immigration Fueled Trump’s Venezuela Campaign

Edward Wong, Tyler Pager, Charlie Savage, Julian E. Barnes and Maria Abi-Habib

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On a spring night in the Oval Office, President Trump asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio how to get tougher on Venezuela.

It was just before Memorial Day, and anti-leftist Cuban American lawmakers whose votes Mr. Trump needed for his signature domestic policy bill were urging him to tighten a vise on Venezuela by stopping Chevron’s oil operations there. But Mr. Trump did not want to lose the only U.S. foothold in Venezuela’s oil industry, where China is the biggest foreign player.

The president was considering allowing Chevron to continue. But he told Mr. Rubio, a longtime hawk on Venezuela and Cuba, that they had to show the lawmakers and other doubters they could bring the hammer down on Nicolás Maduro, the leftist autocratic leader of Venezuela, whom Mr. Trump had tried to oust in his first term.

Another aide in the room, Stephen Miller, said he had ideas. As Mr. Trump’s homeland security adviser, he had been talking with other officials about Mr. Trump’s campaign vow to bomb fentanyl labs. For various reasons, that notion had faded, and in recent weeks Mr. Miller had turned to exploring attacks on boats suspected of carrying drugs off the shores of Central America.

The war is not coming, it is already quietly

Hsiao Hsi-huei

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Taiwan does not exist in a state of true peace. Its situation is more akin to a prolonged, unofficial state of political warfare. The Legislative Yuan, beyond being the venue of policy debate in Taiwan, has become the front line of resistance in the conflict. Understanding this strategic reality is crucial to understanding the amendments to the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area (臺灣地區與大陸地區人民關係條例), which require legislators to obtain approval before traveling to China.

In his book On War, Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote that “war is the continuation of policy by other means.” The threat of military force has long ceased to be all Taiwan faces — political engagement, infiltration and psychological manipulation have steadily eroded Taiwan’s defenses. This is the essence of political warfare: influencing a society’s decisions without ever firing a shot.

Russia Pummels Kyiv Before Trump-Zelensky Meeting

Cassandra Vinograd

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Russia pounded the Ukrainian capital with waves of missiles and attack drones on Saturday, an hourslong assault that came the day before President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine’s scheduled meeting in Florida with President Trump to discuss a plan to end the war.

Two people were killed — one person in the suburbs of Kyiv and one in the city itself, according to the local authorities. At least 32 other people were wounded.

Mr. Zelensky said the attack made clear that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was not serious about peace talks.

“Russian representatives engage in lengthy talks, but in reality, Kinzhals and ‘shaheds’ speak for them,” he wrote on social media, using the names of ballistic missiles and attack drones. “This is the true attitude of Putin and his inner circle. They do not want to end the war and seek to use every opportunity to cause Ukraine even greater suffering.”

Central Asia: The High Cost To Maintaining Geopolitical Balance

Kuat Dombay

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Central Asia got caught in global geopolitical turmoil with its two giant neighbors – Russia confronting the West over Ukraine, and China, now region’s largest trading partner, expanding its influence in trade and policy. The region has to navigate carefully in a challenging landscape to preserve its important ties with the West.

Russia, a traditional power in the region, having lost influence over the South Caucasus and Syria, is striving to preserve its grip over Central Asia. There are two key reasons: this region is a strategic gateway to the South and China, and Central Asia has become increasingly important to Russia’s foreign trade, which has grown over 30% in the past three years (from $34.5 to $45 billion), despite—and in some respect because of—sanctions.

The Cyber Deterrence Dilemma: Parallels Between Cyber and Intelligence Special Operations

Jorge R. Kravetz 

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In December 2020, the United States experienced one of the most sophisticated cyber espionage attacks in its history: the SolarWinds supply chain breach. Information technology (IT) management software from the company SolarWinds was compromised by the introduction of malware through its network performance monitoring platform. The attackers, identified as being from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, accessed the infrastructure of numerous organizations, including U.S. Government agencies and private-sector companies, compromising sensitive data. The prolonged infiltration of critical systems revealed notable deficiencies in existing deterrence strategies.1

This incident parallels other historical espionage cases, such as Operation Ivy Bells during the Cold War, in which U.S. intelligence operatives covertly intercepted Soviet underwater communications cables for years without detection.2 These examples illustrate a recurring challenge: both cyber and traditional intelligence special operations frequently evade conventional deterrence measures. The question that motivates this research is how the deterrent effects of cyber operations and their potential failures relate to the deterrent effects of traditional intelligence special operations.

The Innovator’s Burden: Why the Military Must Find, Protect, and Unleash Its True Visionaries

Bill Murray

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Step inside any military presentation today, and you’ll encounter a meticulously staged production. The language of the future is everywhere: “transformation,” “disruption,” “innovation.” It’s a well-rehearsed performance, complete with “Shark Tank” committees, gleaming “innovation labs,” and new commands planted in tech-centric hubs like Austin. Tech start-up salesmen, flush with venture capitalist dollars, roam the halls, peddling software they promise will win the next war. The presentations are polished, the rhetoric inspiring, all designed to project an image of relentless forward progress.

But here’s the unvarnished truth: the military is deficient in the innovative ideas needed to guide future technological development. There’s a vast chasm between the language of innovation and the arduous, often painful, act of it. The military has mastered the vocabulary of innovation, launching countless initiatives, yet this flurry of activity often masks a deeper challenge: a deep-seated, institutional resistance to and mistrust of the very people who generate truly groundbreaking ideas.

Why Did the United States Conduct Strikes in Nigeria?

Alexander Palmer

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On December 25, 2025, the United States struck two apparent Islamic State camps in northwest Nigeria with Tomahawk missiles. U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) announced that it struck “ISIS terrorists in Nigeria” in collaboration with the Nigerian government.

Q1: Who did the strikes target?

A1: President Trump stated that the attack targeted Islamic State militants in Nigeria’s Sokoto state. President Trump was almost certainly referring to the Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP) or Lakurawa, a local group with increasing ties to the Islamic State.

ISSP is an Islamic State group active in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria. The group grew in strength in 2025 and now commands more fighters, controls more territory, and conducts deadlier attacks than it ever has before. Much of ISSP’s recent gains have come in Niger and Nigeria, where it has increased coordination with other terrorist groups and established an operational presence.