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7 March 2026

India’s Afghan Test: Is New Delhi A Status Quo Power Or A Strategic One?

Zarif Aminyar
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There are moments in geopolitics when inaction becomes a decision. The Pakistan–Afghanistan war is one of them. As Islamabad launches strikes over allegations that Kabul harbors the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Afghanistan retaliates in defense of its sovereignty, South Asia is witnessing the unraveling of a doctrine decades in the making. Pakistan’s pursuit of “strategic depth”, the belief that influence over Afghanistan would secure its western flank and counterbalance India , is collapsing under the weight of militant blowback. Yet the more consequential question may not concern Islamabad at all. It concerns New Delhi. But the question to ask is that why is India behaving like a peripheral observer in a crisis unfolding in its own strategic backyard?

For years, Indian policymakers criticized Pakistan’s Afghan policy as reckless. A reckless policy to New Delhi is characterized as dangerous flirtation with militant proxies that would eventually destabilize the region. That critique now appears vindicated. But vindication without action is geopolitically meaningless. It is important to state that looking at the history, great powers do not merely wait for adversaries’ strategies to fail; they shape what comes next but instead, India appears trapped between aspiration and hesitation. It seeks recognition as a global actor, a voice of the Global South, a counterweight in the Indo-Pacific, a rising economic power yet hesitates to assert itself decisively in continental South Asia. The contradiction is glaring.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:40 No comments:

Military called to northern Pakistan region after deadly Iran protests

Mushtaq Ali
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In the northern city of Skardu, in Shi'ite majority Gilgit-Baltistan, normally a tourist hotspot, protesters set fire to a U.N. office on Sunday with 14 people, including a soldier, killed in the ensuing clashes, local officials said. Two others died in the capital Islamabad. Ten people were killed on Sunday in Karachi, where protesters stormed the U.S. consulate and breached the compound's outer wall.

Thousands of people also protested in the northern cities of Parachinar, Dera Ismail Khan and Peshawar but no clashes were reported. The Shi'ite community announced funeral processions for those killed in Gilgit-Baltistan, Karachi and Islamabad for Monday. Pakistan is home to the world's second-largest Shi'ite community after Iran. Many protesters said Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the airstrikes, was like a spiritual leader for the community.

Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:35 No comments:

Beyond The Security Lens: A Pragmatic Analysis Of Taliban Governance In 2026

Ioritz Abecia Bermudez
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Internal Consolidation and the End of the “Forty-Year War”

In February 2026, the primary argument for the Taliban’s legitimacy among its domestic and regional supporters is the unprecedented cessation of large-scale internal conflict. Since 1978, Afghanistan had been a theater of continuous warfare, with shifting frontlines and a fractured landscape of warlordism. Under the current administration, the central leadership in Kandahar and Kabul has successfully established a unified chain of command that extends to the remotest provinces. This consolidation has eliminated the “security tax” previously imposed by local militias and has allowed for the reopening of national highways, facilitating a level of domestic commerce and movement that was impossible during the presence of international coalition forces.

Furthermore, the administration has demonstrated a capacity for policy enforcement that eluded previous Western-backed governments. The most striking example is the 2025 anti-narcotics campaign, which sustained the opium poppy ban for a third consecutive year. By February 2026, satellite data confirms that cultivation remains near zero in former strongholds like Helmand and Kandahar. While this has caused significant economic hardship for rural farmers, it has been hailed by regional neighbors—particularly Iran and Russia—as a critical contribution to regional health and stability, proving that the Taliban can be an effective partner in tackling cross-border issues when their interests align with international mandates.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:35 No comments:

The Limits and Risks of Sino-Russian Military-Technological Cooperation

Michael Magill
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The United States probably cannot break Russia off from China in the military technology sector. But it can recognize that there are tensions between the two, and do its best to grow them.

Technological cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation has evolved into one of the most consequential strategic alignments shaping international security. Cooperation across ISR (Intelligence Surveillance & Reconnaissance), BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense), and the space domain challenges existing US advantages and demands a shift in US policy.

Once characterized by opportunistic transfers and transactional exchanges, the Sino-Russian partnership since 2014 has matured into a structured, dual-use ecosystem spanning space operations, intelligence and reconnaissance networks, missile warning and air defense systems, and the industrial technologies that enable them. Technological cooperation between the two nations has oscillated between dependence, mistrust, and limited convergence since the Cold War, shaped initially by Soviet assistance to China’s missile and space programs and later by post-Cold War arms and technology transfers. Following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the imposition of Western sanctions, this cooperation shifted from episodic, transactional exchanges to more institutionalized, asymmetric collaboration in dual-use domains, with China emerging as the dominant economic and manufacturing partner.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:25 No comments:

How Did America Know Where to Find Iran’s Leaders?

Stavros Atlamazoglou
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There is overwhelming evidence that the United States and Israel have thoroughly penetrated Iran’s security services.

On Saturday morning, the conflict that was brewing around Iran for weeks finally exploded. The United States and Israel launched strikes across Iran. This is not the first time the three countries have gone to war in recent months. Last summer, Iran and the US conducted precision strikes against Iran’s military and nuclear facilities. Iran responded with salvoes of missiles and kamikaze drones across the Middle East.

But the scale of the ongoing strikes, as well as the objective of the US—regime change—are unprecedented.

Trump Is Trying Regime Change from the Air

President Donald Trump verified reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in the air strikes. Khamenei had been leading Iran’s theocracy since 1989 following the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, the man who overthrew the Shah and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:20 No comments:

This is how Iran plans to endure Trump's war

Tom O'Connor
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Iranian officials are grappling with a grave ultimatum as the country battles an unprecedented joint U.S.-Israeli military intervention that has slain the Islamic Republic’s absolute ruler and scores of senior commanders.

President Donald Trump has offered amnesty to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members who choose to lay down their arms. He has called on Iranian citizens to lead the charge in ousting their government. Despite overwhelming setbacks, however, Iran has yet to indicate any high-profile defections or instances of the kind of mass protests that rocked the nation in January, the deadly crackdowns against which served as the catalyst for Trump’s march toward confrontation with the Islamic Republic.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

The Great Game of Oil: Why Iran is about leverage not liberation

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Within seventy-two hours of Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli strike on Iran, Tehran had retaliated across the entire Persian Gulf. Drones and missiles hit targets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. QatarEnergy shut down parts of its LNG production, a country responsible for roughly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas production. Tanker operators halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged past levels not seen in over a year, with analysts warning of $100 (€86) per barrel if the disruption persists. On social media, the usual commentators are talking about doom and gloom. But before we surrender to panic, it is worth asking a question that very few people seem to be posing: What, precisely, is the strategic purpose of all this?

The oil price movements, dramatic as they are, remain by historical comparison far from existential. Prices had already been hovering around $70 (€60)) to $80 (€69) per barrel for years, with the markets having long priced in significant geopolitical risk since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even at a hundred dollars, we are nowhere near the shocks of the nineteen-seventies. Painful, certainly. Catastrophic, no. The difference matters, because it tells us something important about how Washington is calculating.

Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

Post-Khamenei turmoil puts China’s energy security at risk

Jeff Pao
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Beijing is now placing energy security at the top of its strategic agenda following the February 28 confirmation of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death.

China now faces a halt, enforced by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a route through which transits a substantial share of its crude imports. The result will be sharply increased shipping risks, inflated insurance premiums and higher costs of oil deliveries to the world’s largest manufacturing economy. A potential change of regime in Tehran also threatens the opaque flow of discounted Iranian crude to China, according to some Chinese commentators.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

CNA Explains: How Iran’s Shahed drones are shaping war in the Middle East

Chelsea Ong
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Iran's Shahed drones are playing a major role in its war against the United States and Israel. Tehran unleashed hundreds of missiles and drones across the Middle East following US and Israel strikes on Saturday (Feb 28), underscoring just how central these systems have become to its military playbook.

Some of these drones flew as far as the British Royal Air Force base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, striking the runway - a sign of their extended reach. Already widely used by Russia in the war in Ukraine, Shahed drones are now back in focus amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In a notable shift, the US has also begun fielding low-cost one-way attack drones modelled after Iranian designs.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

The U.S. War on Iran Rattles Energy Markets

Keith Johnson
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Oil prices jumped significantly on Monday, the third day of the U.S. war on Iran, with a roller-coaster rise of between 7 percent and 9 percent in the price of benchmark crude oil, as Tehran widened the war to include targeting energy facilities all around the region.

The only wonder is that oil prices aren’t jumping even higher. What is happening now in the Middle East is exactly the scenario that energy executives, analysts, and traders have fretted about for years.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:15 No comments:

Observations of Operation Epic Fury

Bill Connor
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On Saturday morning I woke up to learn America and Israel had launched strikes on Iran. This came after around two months of the Iranian regime’s crackdown on its own people, killing tens of thousands. This also came after weeks of negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at stopping Iran from murdering civilian protesters, curtailing Iran’s nuclear program, and limiting Iran’s missile development. These talks broke down a couple of days before operations against Iran were launched and after the U.S. had moved forces into the region. According to those familiar with the talk, Iran would not give up its nuclear program.

From the Central Command press release about “Operation Epic Fury”: “U.S. and partner forces began striking targets at 1:15 am ET to dismantle the Iranian regime’s security apparatus, prioritizing locations that posed an imminent threat. Targets included Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields…. Operation Epic Fury involves the largest regional concentration of American military firepower in a generation.”
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Attacking Iran, U.S. Could Remove an Adversary From Strategic Calculations

Jennifer Parker
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The U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran that began on Saturday is not a limited reprise of last year’s strike on Iran’s nuclear program. The objective now appears broader. Washington appears to be attempting something far more ambitious than its limited strike in June 2025. It is seeking to remove what it views as a persistent source of instability in the region: the regime of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the strikes on his compound.

It is a significant gamble. Whether it succeeds will not be clear for some time.

How did we get here, and what does it mean for Australia? The answer to both is complex. Much will be written in coming days about the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1983 bombing of U.S. Marines in Beirut, and the attack on USS Cole in Yemen in 2000. But the more relevant point is what Iran has represented strategically over the past two decades.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

What to Watch for in Operation Epic Fury

Gary Anderson
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Before retiring from a teaching position at George Washington University last year, I ended each semester with a war game in which Iranian factions competed with each other to craft a response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program and an American proposal to end the crisis. The three decision-making elites consisted of the Supreme Leader and his Guardian Council, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the executive branch (President, Foreign Ministry, regular security forces, and the rest of the professional bureaucracy).

Over the course of 15 years, there were a number of outcomes, but there was one common thread; survival of each elite group rather than the nuclear program was the primary concern of the players. The graduate students had spent much of the semester researching the motivation and cultures of their assigned group and I think their reactions were well informed. When I retired last spring I knew that I would probably have had to change the scenario if I stuck around for another year. President Trump had made it clear that he intended to disrupt the status quo.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Nepal's long history of political instability

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Nepal was ruled by monarchs from various dynasties, until 1951 when a parliamentary democracy was established. A decade later, King Mahendra suspended the constitution and banned political parties. ​His son, King Birendra, retained full control of the country till 1990, when the absolute ​monarchy was reduced to a constitutional one.

In elections in 1991 and 1999, the centrist ⁠Nepali Congress - the country's oldest political party - won a clear majority required to form the government, but ​did not last its full term either time because of internal and inter-party squabbling. A period of political flux ​followed. King Birendra and eight other royals were killed in a 2001 palace massacre by his son, Crown Prince Dipendra, who later turned the gun on himself, according to an official inquiry.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Russia Struggles to Find a Response to U.S.–Israel Attack on Iran

Pavel K. Baev
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The U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which began on February 28, caught Moscow off guard because Russian officials had only anticipated a limited strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Kremlin convened emergency meetings and publicly condemned the attacks, but provided no material support to Tehran.

Despite Iran’s recent entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023 and BRICS in 2024, Moscow avoided invoking these blocs. The crisis may further complicate already stalled U.S.–Russia talks over Ukraine. The Kremlin is chiefly concerned about how this conflict will impact global oil prices. The killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also heightens speculation about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal security concerns, reinforcing fears of regime change and exposing Russia’s inability to aid key partners.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

U.S. Suffers Worst Day of Air Losses in Decades as Iran Conflict Spirals

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The Iran conflict is escalating, with the Trump administration desperate to keep a straight face on things as American casualties and losses begin mounting. Today’s major shock came when not one, not two, but an unprecedented three American F-15E fighter jets were mysteriously shot down over Kuwait. Note the official US military report admits that Iranian aircraft had been engaging them at a time when “air superiority” was allegedly long established:

But not everyone is convinced these were “friendly fire” incidents. Iran announced it had downed the craft, which is at least plausible given that Kuwait is positioned well within reach of long-range S-300s.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Pentagon details cyber, space ‘first mover’ role in Iran operations

Sandra Erwin
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At a March 2 Pentagon news conference alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the coordinated campaign as “major combat operations” that remain ongoing, without offering a timeline. President Trump and senior officials have said the strikes are aimed at halting what they characterize as a growing threat from Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

Caine said the operation, led by U.S. Central Command, required tight coordination across air, maritime, cyber and space domains. “The United States, Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, Space Force, Coast Guard and our reserve components integrated across our combat commands and began coordinated operations with the Israeli armed forces of an unprecedented scale,” he said.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Are Racing the Clock

Amos C. Fox
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At first glance, the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran is an uneven fight. The United States and Israel have overwhelming air superiority, precision-guided munitions, integrated intelligence, and multilayered missile defense systems against Iranian retaliatory strikes. While it’s hard to see a political theory of victory over Iran in this campaign, the operational theory of success is based on precision strikes quickly taking out Iranian air defenses, command and control, and missile launchers.

The attackers do not want to find themselves trapped in an attritional slugfest, where they burn through hundreds of millions of dollars per day, exhaust their stocks of the most advanced interceptors, and face the prospect of a prolonged war—not by losing on the battlefield but by simply exhausting their anti-air weapons in the coming days and weeks.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

A rap star might just beat a former PM - what this says about Nepal's Gen Z election

Azadeh Moshiri
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Rap music blared out around us at a campaign rally in the district of Chitwan, in Nepal. Supporters of 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah screamed out lyrics to an AI-generated campaign song which translates to: "Time's up, Fake leaders, Game Over. We'll ring the bell on 5 March."

Crowds of all ages were chanting "Balen", as he's referred to in Nepal. Giant banners of the political newcomer wearing his trademark black sunglasses were mounted across the rally. Balen Shah is running for prime minister after just three years as mayor of the capital, Kathmandu. He is contesting in what's become a key race between Nepal's entrenched political establishment and a new generation of politicians. His party, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), came fourth in the last general election in 2022.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

The Gen Z uprising in Asia shows social media is a double-edged sword

Tessa Wong
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What riled him most were claims that a major road was blocked for hours for VIP guests, who reportedly included the Nepalese prime minister.Though the claims were never verified and the politician later denied that his family had misused state resources, Aditya's mind was made up.

It was, he decided, "really unacceptable".

Over the next few months he noticed more posts on social media by politicians and their children - pictures showing exotic holidays, mansions, supercars and designer handbags. One photograph of Saugat Thapa, a provincial minister's son, went viral. It showed an enormous pile of gift boxes from Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Cartier and Christian Louboutin, decorated with fairy lights and Christmas baubles and topped with a Santa hat.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Ukraine to help down Iran’s drones: How Russia’s war rewrote the playbook

Mansur Mirovalev
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Just days earlier, Ukrspecsystems, one of Ukraine’s largest drone manufacturers, opened a factory in the eastern English town of Mildenhall to churn out up to 1,000 unmanned aircraft a month. Ukraine’s former top general and current ambassador to the United Kingdom, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, attended the opening, the BBC reported.

Back in 2022, when Moscow started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, some Western military analysts believed that two ex-Soviet armies would fight each other using obsolete stratagems and weapons. Who would have thought that four years later, China, the United States and Europe would scrutinise the war’s technological and tactical breakthroughs, a combination of unorthodox, hi-tech solutions and jury-rigged fixes that make warfare cheaper and arms manufacturing faster and deadlier?
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Why World Powers Have A Major Interest In Keeping Strait Of Hormuz Open

Jonathan Gornall
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As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, attention is turning once again to the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow, 33-km-wide stretch of water separating Oman and Iran, through which a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply flows.

During the 12-day war in June last year, when Israel and the US attacked Iranian military and nuclear facilities, the mere suggestion that Iran might try to close the waterway sent oil prices soaring.

And, on Sunday morning, fears that shipping through the globally vital but vulnerable bottleneck was once again in peril were realized when the Oman Maritime Security Centre reported that the Skylight, a Palau-flagged tanker, had been hit some 5 nautical miles north of Musandam’s Khasab port.

It was not immediately clear what had struck the vessel, injuring four crew members. Oman said the 20 crew members, including 15 Indians and five Iranians, had been evacuated safely
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:10 No comments:

Fading into the Background: From Risk Awareness to Technological Intuition

Anna Gielas
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In this latest JSOU report, Anna Gielas describes how sensor-rich environments leverage data fusion and ubiquitous tech to detect Special Operations Forces. The risks are also multidirectional and multi-temporal, with exposure emerging from automated inference, overhead sensing, subsurface vibration detection, and ambient device ecosystems. USSOF teams can reduce exposure by first building a practical mental model of how environments “sense, process, and retain data,” which allows detachments to ask better operational questions about deviations, traces, and signal pathways that they can later leverage to operate within the gaps and seams of contested environments.

Gielas contends that technological intuition (trained judgment rather than instinct) is essential to increasing survivability. A human-centric approach that emphasizes signal literacy and inference awareness is a critical baseline that will save lives in denied environments saturated with adversary sensing.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:05 No comments:

Terrorist Financing in the Age of Large Language Models

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This research briefing by Jason Blazakis examines how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) could be exploited to support terrorist financing activity. The report argues that LLMs could act as powerful “force multipliers” by lowering barriers to persuasion, coordination and financial deception and that these technologies risk reshaping the economics of terrorist fundraising by enabling scalable, personalised and culturally tailored appeals at unprecedented speed.

The report assesses how AI-enabled tools could be used for generating fundraising narratives or outreach materials as well as used to help enable assisted fraud, cyber theft and improved concealment of proceeds. It compares how leading LLM providers, including OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, address terrorism and illicit finance within their published policies, highlighting notable differences in regulatory specificity and enforcement approaches. To test whether these policies translate into practice, the author conducted limited baseline prompt testing across the three major LLM models offered by these companies, examining whether they refused overt requests related to terrorist fundraising and money laundering.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:05 No comments:

Beyond the Battlefield: Threats to the Defense Industrial Base

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In modern warfare, the front lines are no longer confined to the battlefield; they extend directly into the servers and supply chains of the industry that safeguards the nation. Today, the defense sector faces a relentless barrage of cyber operations conducted by state-sponsored actors and criminal groups alike. In recent years, Google Threat Intelligence Group (GTIG) has observed several distinct areas of focus in adversarial targeting of the defense industrial base (DIB). While not exhaustive of all actors and means, some of the more prominent themes in the landscape today include:

Consistent effort has been dedicated to targeting defense entities fielding technologies on the battlefield in the Russia-Ukraine War. As next-generation capabilities are being operationalized in this environment, Russia-nexus threat actors and hacktivists are seeking to compromise defense contractors alongside military assets and systems, with a focus on organizations involved with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This includes targeting defense companies directly, using themes mimicking their products and systems in intrusions against military organizations and personnel.
Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd) at 00:02 No comments:
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Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM(Retd)
B.E, M Tech, M Sc (Defence Studies), M Phil, MMS, taken part in CI Ops in Valley, Assam and Punjab. Worked in EW, SIGINT, Cyber, IT and Comn field. Wide experience in Command, Staff and Instructor appointments. Has been Senior Directing Staff (Army) in National Defence College. Published a large number of papers in peer reviewed journals on contemporary issues. He delivers talk in Seminar, Panel Discussion and workshops regularly. He has interests in Cyber, SIGINT, Electronic Warfare, Technology and CI/CT Ops.
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